StockTwits Transcripts

MacroTwits Hour Sunday March 15, 2009 Part II

faithmight Mar. 15 at 10:06 PM #
RT @GregorMacdonald IMHO—the next risk is flight from US Treasuries into real assets. That’s is the stench I smell, in the air. $$

StockTwits Mar. 15 at 10:05 PM #
Thanks @GregorMacdonald Great session man. We see you next week same time same place for MacroTwits Hour on @StockTwits

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 10:04 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Thank you; always great pre-week food for thought. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 10:04 PM #
Cheers to all. $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM
I heard somewhere Today’s dollar is worth 5 cents relative to the value of Gold $$

ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM #
@GregorMacdonald awesome session!! I really appreciate all of the insight in tonight’s session. Great conversations everyone!! $$

Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM #
$GLD is way to devalue the price of physical . Thanx Gregor $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 10:02 PM #
I’d like to thank everyone for a fast moving session tonight: Gold, Oil, Treasuries. Those are where the action will come. $$

avcacio Mar. 15 at 10:02 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Thank You Gregor! $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 10:00 PM #
@manch smart money in 1950-1972 owned Gold as artifacts in offshore safekeeping & won suit against USG re: ‘collectibles’ $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 10:00 PM #
OK. We are finishing up. IMHO—the next risk is flight from US Treasuries into real assets. That’s is the stench I smell, in the air. $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 10:00 PM #
@lawrencewildman yes, hyperinflation is yet to come; at the moment we are still in deflation $$

Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:59 PM #
The CDN Oil plays for the next 2 years are the Oil trust funds the .UN’s $PWT.UN is the cheapest stock in N.A % wise $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:59 PM #
@sorenmacbeth That is why central banks fear inflation much more that deflation. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:58 PM #
@tradefast You and I will have to talk. I see you have used two models now for a Gold target. I like both. $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:58 PM #
My biggest worry about gold is uncle ben confiscating all mine, i dunno, to pay for another round of AIG bonus? $$

sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:58 PM #
@Fullcarry cheapening is certainly easier that strengthening though. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
@MacroMeister Feels like Japan’s deflation funded global growth, now US debt-deflation will do the same: Printing Method each time. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
@IntuitiveTrade no idea what you mean. we had inflation, now we have deflation but clearly that doesn’t equal hyperinflation. $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
We still had some gold std back in 30s. RT @GregorMacdonald: I really encourage people to look at Gold in the 1930s. $$

tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@GregorMacdonald using Bretton Woods-model math (Fed bank liab divided by us gold hldgs), price of gold would be north of 9K per oz $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@GregorMacdonald It is incomprehensible to me that people think central banks can’t cheapen their currencies if they chose to. $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@GregorMacdonald …unless your hypothesis about Japan desperately funds World Bank reflation that also hits yen! …then just maybe. $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
@lawrencewildman inflation followed by defation would be hyperinflation since it’s caused by printin money by central banks that’s worst $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
@Fullcarry education and healthcare from past few CPI’s and past 6 mo is about as ‘hyper’ as deflation can get, i suspect $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
I really encourage people to look at Gold in the 1930s, and then after the Civil War, and also in Euro banking/money blow-ups. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:54 PM #
reply
@Fullcarry no doubt, and obv there are structural impediments to how hyper deflation can get (ie down to 0) v. inflation. but strip out $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:54 PM #
@TWTraders Hugh Hendry is still saying that QE and Monetization will fail at reflating. Hugh is saying the central banks cannot reflate. $$

Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:53 PM #
Gold is the only honest money cause it has no liability attached to it $$

powitz Mar. 15 at 9:52 PM #
@MacroMeister $GLD - I’m probably over-analyzing it? Huh? lol

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:52 PM #
@Psando Important to remember that OECD demand growth for oil this decade has been weak. Not zero. Just weak. Started weakening in ‘04 $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:52 PM #
@lawrencewildman During periods of hyperinflation currencies lost 99.9999% of their value. In supposed deflation JPY has lost value. $$

gregorylent Mar. 15 at 9:51 PM #
the good that is happening, which no one talks about, is the increased obviousness of global interdependence, we are in it together $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:51 PM #
Faber really nailed the latest sucker rally. He was on bberg predicting it and the next day everything went rocket up $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:50 PM #
@TWTraders One of my views is that yes, if world reflates, the Nikkei could explode higher. Seems so impossible, doesn’t it? Heh. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:50 PM #
@IntuitiveTrade right, but question is what is next. more deflation or some amount of inflation, and which is worse. $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:49 PM #
@lawrencewildman Check CPI, PPI the past two months. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:49 PM #
@lawrencewildman My concern is that a hyperdeflation turns away from the USD and concentrates on Oil and Gold. Everything down vs those 2 $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@Alphagroupie …which is another influence for very subnormal i.t. growth as Boomers keep working & do not free up slots for young’ns $$

avcacio Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@medicvz if you like oil - $ERX just broke out of triangle, and has now had a “pullback” to top flat line (daily) (long)

powitz Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
$$ anybody have good tech analysis on $GLD or commodity from 1970? saw chart in Ferguson’s “Ascent of Money” book. to my TA inexp.-bullish.

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@lawrencewildman actually we had the inflation (due to commodities boom/bubble) before deflation that started with failure of the finnies $$

TWTraders Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@gregormacdonald If the world successfully reflates, do you see the nikkei moving heroically higher $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:47 PM #
RT @manch I think all fiat currencies will depreciate against hard assets eg gold and oil medium term. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:47 PM #
@fullcarry - agreed. though we all know CPI’s deficiencies. world is now a half off sale from 6 mo ago. that’s hyperdeflation to me. $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:46 PM #
I think all fiat currencies will depreciate against hard assets eg gold and oil medium term. $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:46 PM #
@Fullcarry certainly true; especially in mkts where chaos potential supports Gold vs fiat currency reflation kindling inflation $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:44 PM #
We are now transferring private debt into public, and thus makes it even harder to get rid of. As far as I see US default will NOT happen $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:44 PM #
@lawrencewildman Remember the price level isn’t purely Oil or commods. Check out core CPI. Or Japan’s exp. $$