StockTwits Transcripts

MacroTwits Hour Sunday March 15, 2009 Part I

fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
$$ I don’t know what LT CG is, but have you considered the tax savings?

Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
Social Security with upcoming massive inflation will provide mo security for any Society $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
@fortune8 preachin’ to the choir over here: full macro means in-depth tech requires fundamental ‘rationale’ (not necessarily headlines) $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:42 PM #
@fullcarry - the past 6 months sure feel like hyper deflation. Oil and most commodities down more than 50%. That’s not hyper enough? $$

cselland Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
agreed RT @GregorMacdonald: the Story of the Week came at the tail end. The Premier of China expressing open worry about Treasuries. $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
Deflation has never had a hyper version. $$

b1z1l1 Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
I see food inflation being high.energy,housing staying flat or going lower.dont know what that means. $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:40 PM #
Inflation and deflation aren’t symmetrical. Even if you believe in deflation you should hedge for inflation. $$

jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
@lawrencewildman Perhaps we will know in 16 days: “April is the cruelest month…” (T.S. Eliott, “The Waste Land”) $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
@lawrencewildman deflation always followed by inflation in Keynesian world, b/c political imperative demands it $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
@GregorMacdonald absolutely that’s the most scariest part (inflation after deflation;that is why some predict social unrest;I pray to God $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:38 PM #
RT @lawrencewildman: @gregormacdonald - is deflation followed by inflation really more cruel than deflation followed by more deflation? $$

tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:38 PM #
@GregorMacdonald in a tug of war, timing is always uncertin - but to bet against the fed is illogical - the fed is the monetary base $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:38 PM #
Bernanke must know financial flows to support Treasuries this decade was our own Spending coming back to us via CBs. Implication obvious $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:37 PM #
@ZMoose12 RT: @GregorMacdonald double crushing of Deflation then Inflation is very cruel. Esp as money will be on wrong side each time. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:37 PM #
@gregormacdonald - is deflation followed by inflation really more cruel than deflation followed by more deflation? $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:36 PM #
China’s productivity slowdown will make it harder for them to support the value of the dollar. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:36 PM #
reply
@ZMoose12 Key essays to my views on Inflation vs. Deflation: Here http://bit.ly/fRT11 And here: http://bit.ly/w91Hk $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:35 PM #
@MacroMeister The double crushing of Deflation then Inflation is very cruel. Esp as money will be on wrong side each time. $$

ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:34 PM #
@GregorMacdonald I was asked the question of “Inflation or Deflation in the future?” this weekend… what is your stance? $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:33 PM #
@GregorMacdonald …yet, the eventual combined return to growth + infl will ultimatley crush bonds & fleece the Boomers 1 more time LOL $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:33 PM #
@IntuitiveTrade I agree that Deflation in Debt is greater (so far) than Money Printing. Tipping points are possible, however. $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:32 PM #
@GregorMacdonald exactly. USTreas bulls classic long tails b/c residual distrust of corporates during econ weakness… (more) $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:31 PM #
In my view,2009 another bust yr for commodities including Oil,Oil could be an exception, but can’t go beyond $70; deflation will continue $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:31 PM #
@ZMoose12 @manch I actually don’t see Gov Debt as a bubble. I see it more as a 27 yr bull market that is now over. Done. $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
US Treasuries is safe in the sense US won’t default outright. It will just print money to pay for it. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
@jonathanks I feel that best way to play Oil via equities is through the Canadian ETF known as XEG on the TSX. Safety from US politics $$

leonarbull Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
RT @GregorMacdonald: North American supply is down 1 million barrels a day from 2003 to 2008: That was in face of oil from 30 to 150. $$

ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:29 PM #
@GregorMacdonald do you see U.S. Treasuries being the next major bubble to burst if China is for real? $$

jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:28 PM #
@GregorMacdonald — I believe that last week you endorsed Canadian oil investments during Obama admin; current thoughts / picks? Tnx. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:28 PM #
The situation with US Treasuries is eerily like Housing. “Safe as Houses” and all that. People “worried” but market holds up. And then… $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:26 PM #
North American supply is down 1 million barrels a day from 2003 to 2008: That was in face of oil from 30 to 150. $$

tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:25 PM #
Japan’s issues give Bernanke license to promote acceleration of monetary inflation without limit. He seems happy to comply. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:25 PM #
@b1z1l1 What’s also happening is all the more expensive oil also has a decline in Energy Return (on energy invested). $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:23 PM #
@faithmight See today’s blog at my site www.gregor.us on North American supply. MX oil is very important to world supply, and strategic. $$

b1z1l1 Mar. 15 at 9:23 PM #
@GregorMacdonald it would be interesting to see it as far as the ratio goes $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:23 PM #
@GregorMacdonald very true; Germany did see hyperinflation & collapse twice in a single generation $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:22 PM #
@b1z1l1 There has been some compelling work showing that Energy Return now on Nuclear is falling. I don’t know. $$

b1z1l1 Mar. 15 at 9:21 PM #
oil is cheap on an energy conversion basis.the most efficient energy source is nuclear.but has a large stigma attached to it. $$

faithmight Mar. 15 at 9:21 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Mexican oil supply is relevant? How? Forgive my naivete. $$

snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
@sorenmacbeth What else can I trade for my Dad in his Ameritrade account and just let it ride with 5% trailing stop? $UUP

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
RT @Fullcarry: US in the 30s feared Weimer Germany. US today fears Japan. We always tilt against the wrong windmill. $$

aiki14 Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
@GregorMacdonald But will Libya, Iran and Argentina really cut regardless of any agreement? $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
@GregorMacdonald US in the 30s feared Weimer Germany. US today fears Japan. We always tilt against the wrong windmill. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:19 PM #
Heads up everyone: I like to keep the language clean here. This is a high class place, OK. :-) $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:19 PM #
@ToddSullivan My view is that all OPEC needs now is the final 20% of compliance, b/c yes, they see non-OPEC is tanking. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:18 PM #
@MacroMeister Europe cannot let go of the hyperinflationary ghosts, and we cannot let go of the opposite fears. $$

ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:18 PM #
@GregorMacdonald very very true. What’s your take on the supply outlook? How long will it take until alt. energy becomes king? $$

ToddSullivan Mar. 15 at 9:17 PM #
@GregorMacdonald did opec not cut because supply is falling on its own? $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:17 PM #
@GregorMacdonald …also why Europe will be left behind (again) with a low inflation but still weaker growth on every contraction $$

sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@snoopyjc $UUP strikes me an odd ETF. USDX moves so slowly, without using leverage. Also, the weighting of the USDX is a bit silly, imo. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@ZMoose12 Sure, there’s TONS of oil to be drilled. Of course, you’ll need much higher prices, and its not likely to increase supply. $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@GregorMacdonald yes, China is buying copper, ion ore etc, but their inventory level is rising, not a sign for intermediate term increase $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Didn’t follow Mexican oil. What happened there? $$

dvolatility Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
Everyones talking about China selling off treasuries, won’t they just take profits in the long end and throw it in the short end??? $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
@GregorMacdonald and China spend is a heck of a lot more enlightened than Europe’s parsimonious paranoia on inflation. G-20 a sham $$

jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
@fortune8 @snoopyjc FAR too much infrastructure dependent upon oil, fossil-fade will take decades. But alt-energy bullish (long term…) $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
@IntuitiveTrade It’s true that OPEC spare capacity builds as non-OPEC supply falls. Price is simply too low for non-OPEC. $$

donahchoo Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
@GregorMacdonald any idea what percentage of China’s Treasuries they will sell off $$

MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
@snoopyjc USD definitely struggling; yet USD Index maj l.t. CH UP Break was .8640 & that must fail b4 any sustained sharp decline $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
@manch Oil cannot go up much til we see the signs of recovery; thre are other factors such as geo politics,supply distruption can jump up $$

snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
@sorenmacbeth I understand that, which is why I mentioned $UUP (which is what I trade) $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
Do people realize that the situation with Mexican oil supply is even more cruel, shocking, and grim than the previous cruel/shock/grim? $$

snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
Speaking of China - realize they just took a bunch of the world’s oil off the market for themselves! $$

ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
@fortune8 @snoopyjc agreed. 5 yrs. is too short, plenty of oil left to be drilled… If we are allowed to drill =D $$

powitz Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
@GregorMacdonald so when China’s selling Treasuries, who’s buying? $$

aiki14 Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
@GregorMacdonald And an opinion on the narrowing of contango in WTI and relation to the Dubai Contract in Backwardation $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
@aiki14 The build at Cushing is real. What’s also real is crashing Mexican supply. Cushing is story of last 6 mos. MX coming! $$

fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:11 PM #
@snoopyjc Exactly, and while oil will go up from here only in a matter of time. Some of you will be crying when oil is 70+ again. $$

sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:11 PM #
You have to be careful about talking about USD in general. USD may be up against JPY, but down against CAD, for example. $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:11 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Reading the tape, there will probably be no QE announcement this week. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:10 PM #
@powitz I think China is already in process of de-hoarding the first 10% of Reserves via buying Stuff. So, action speaks volumes. $$

snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:10 PM #
@fortune8 5 yrs isn’t enough time for the world to remove dependency on oil $$

aiki14 Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
@GregorMacdonald What do you see for the build up at Cushing, short and long term $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
@snoopyjc I don’t know what the USD will do, when its strength is short-term structural. I agree with others that bolder QE is coming. $$

powitz Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
@GregorMacdonald You think the Chinese Navy action + treasury talk by Chinese, is really just bully move by them? or they mean business? $$

fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
$$ What’s your time horizon? Do you seriously think oil still be here in 5 yrs?

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:08 PM #
@manch Oil can go up even when economy flatlines b/c supply is being destroyed quickly in non-OPEC. $$

TWTraders Mar. 15 at 9:08 PM #
@GregorMacdonald how about CVX ? $$

manch Mar. 15 at 9:07 PM #
Most people assume oil can’t go up before econ recovers. What do you guys think? $$

snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:06 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Is the dollar rally over $UUP ?

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:04 PM #
RT @tradefast: For reading later, I blogged about China’s Treasury exposure today. http://character141.blogspot.com/ | Good post! $$

Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:04 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Oil pricing is analogous to a dutch auction. The marginal barrel of oil determines the price for all barrels. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
Do people realize that when OPEC is cutting it’s bearish for Oil, and that when they stop cutting, you are closer to a bottom in oil? $$

StockTwits Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
Welcome Gregor and everyone to MacroTwits Hour on StockTwits

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
@sorenmacbeth Of course, if one is a structural bond bull on Treasuries, then there’s NOTHING that can make one worry, right? :-) $$

sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:01 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Yes, agree re China’s Premier and Treasuries. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
While there is no question one can analyze Chinese Treasury talk many ways, just strikes me that this is non-trivial. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
If you ask me, the Story of the Week came at the tail end. The Premier of China expressing open worry about Treasuries. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
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