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- StockTwits Mar. 01 at 10:01 PM #
- thanks gregor and also thanks to what has become a ridiculously sharp group joining him. see u next sunday night for MacroTwits.
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:59 PM #
- The price of Coal will clearly be raised via new standards. Thus, Coal will get exported more. NG comes to center stage. $$
- brasil61 Mar. 01 at 9:58 PM #
- $$ equities source of funds, no value or ?? value …treasuries liquid hiding place…no value ..gold..small market driven by spec $$ imo
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:58 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald unfortunately that also mirrors acceleration of government competence to the DOWNside we shall see $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:57 PM #
- @faustroll Gold is both “illogical” but also has a 5000+ year history. It’s prudent to carry both realities in hand, when facing gold. $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:56 PM #
- reply
- @nelderini nat gas (cng) as a fuel i believe is the answer. homegrown and way too much of it. $$
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- faustroll Mar. 01 at 9:56 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald well yes when you frame it as “debt repudiation” you kind of confront them with what hides behind the euphemism. naughty $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:56 PM #
- A furious and high-speed MacroTwits session tonight that mirrors the sense of acceleration now appearing in the global markets. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:55 PM #
- @faustroll Cheers. It’s understandable that many would find it upsetting to contemplate some version of US Debt Repudiation. $$
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- nelderini Mar. 01 at 9:55 PM #
- @mikestiller I’m uneasy about oil taxes, period. We’re incredibly vulnerable now w/ 2/3 imported and no innovation fixes even possible. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:54 PM #
- All of this means nothing quite so much as US-G has NOT figured out how to restore lending/confidence, so EQ headed lower, and… $$
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- faustroll Mar. 01 at 9:54 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald jst read ur repudiation thesis:provocatively framed:no emotions here:mortgage readjustments would be prudent 1 supposes $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:54 PM #
- Hot topics tonight are 1. Can Americans save and how much? 2. What happens to USTreasuries. 3. How many forces are at play now in Gold $$
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- starsuponthars Mar. 01 at 9:53 PM #
- @lawrencewildman agree. Like saying going bankrupt is the same as savings. “Savings” is better thought of as a life style. $$
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- EverettStuckey Mar. 01 at 9:52 PM #
- @lawrencewildman yeah not sure about that, its reduction of current consumption to boost future consumption, seems like savings to me $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:52 PM #
- @sogorman that’s why I said not this generation: US no longer VAR to world/jobs no paying enough to save maj percentage $$
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- nelderini Mar. 01 at 9:50 PM #
- @mikestiller Agree; offshore drilling tax makes no sense when crude is selling for 1/2 lifting cost! Popular appeal only. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:50 PM #
- @sorenmacbeth sovereign CDS markets says the breakup of europe is about 20% odds now less than 5 seconds ago $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:49 PM #
- @sorenmacbeth No. The whole Euro breakup meme is a Cheering Song made up by London-NY to blunt pain of our own insolvency. $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 01 at 9:49 PM #
- @sorenmacbeth it happened at the time Silver ETF was created; silver surged in 2006, never reach the price level above $15 again $SLV
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- pdenlinger Mar. 01 at 9:49 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald When countries fall badly into debt, they lose territory. Happened to Russia, China, France, Mexico in 19th century. $$
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- IRON100 Mar. 01 at 9:48 PM #
- No one ever pays himself/herself first in USA, which is what people should learn. We are definitely not like Japan in that category. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:48 PM #
- @Fullcarry lets hope they do they are suppose to keep it from occuring by spending thats also why keynesian stim is over 1 trillion $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:48 PM #
- @nelderini thoughts on obama tax on offshore drilling? seems idiotic to me, will cost 80+ to drill in Gulf now. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:47 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald u r right about that; to save 8.00% they would jobs that are no longer available. Maybe if ED improves our kids will $$
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- sorenmacbeth Mar. 01 at 9:46 PM #
- @howardlindzon def, gold is not longer the fear/inflation gage that is once was. I think the $GLD ETF has a role in that.
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:46 PM #
- savings will go to about 1 tril per annum in USA - thats what causes depressions $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:45 PM #
- @EverettStuckey GDP is a gross figure for the nation’s output. Savings rates come well after everything like taxes, debt service ets. $$
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- todd120proof Mar. 01 at 9:45 PM #
- $$ I’d say that the biggest increase in Americans “saving” this year will be in the form of deleveraging by paying down/off credit cards.
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- EverettStuckey Mar. 01 at 9:44 PM #
- @brasil61 doesn’t matter, there’s already BK, either why if people can’t pay they won’t $$
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- avcacio Mar. 01 at 9:44 PM #
- @brasil61 re: forgive 70% + consumer credit - that would be NICE! $$
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- nelderini Mar. 01 at 9:43 PM #
- @GMRobertson Doubt we’ll see $20 oil. 1.5 mbpd loss over next 2 yrs is conservative; could be 5+ mbpd if we don’t resume drilling soon. $$
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- brasil61 Mar. 01 at 9:42 PM #
- $$ imo - private debt mitigation to Congress is almost a lock …Barney is gathering steam w populist w forgive 70% + consumer credit
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:41 PM #
- My Debt Repudiation post triggered some emotional reactions. Understandably. But Niall Ferguson was out talking Rescheduling today. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:40 PM #
- There is no way Americans can save 8.00% of GDP. Not a chance. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:37 PM #
- @faustroll They are terrified of nationalization. My potentially quirky take is they fear that moves private debt mitigation to Congress $$
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- starsuponthars Mar. 01 at 9:37 PM #
- $$ @EverettStuckey - I’m seeing companies reducing/eliminating 401k match. Betting people will no longer contribute.
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:36 PM #
- That’s part of the reason I see $GD & bonds as so ‘prismatic’: hard to tell what they’ll do if u look back at early OCT $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:36 PM #
- @pkedrosky i think oil “clearing” price is going to be sub $20 UAE hasnt kicked in yet with panic russia will panic iraq; repeat 90s $$
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- faustroll Mar. 01 at 9:35 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald whats ur take on US banking sector and the Summers response? biding time until radical restructuring or piecmeal ? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:35 PM #
- @GMRobertson Did I read you correctly? You think Americans can save 1.1 Trillion? That is 8.00% of GDP. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:35 PM #
- Is it me, or does anyone else get sense EQ fail in the wake of the now ‘set’ gov’t programs is a lot like late SEPT TARP passeage ? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:34 PM #
- @MacroMeister The Languishing Level is also the name of a punk band of laid off traders from the CME. :-) $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 01 at 9:34 PM #
- @gregormacdonald - 175B is about 5 months of WMT revenue. Not a lot against GDP but a lot when taken out of smaller retailers revs $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:34 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald savings rate: folks will save about 10%, about 1.1 tril this year by not paying debt eliminating consumption $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:33 PM #
- @pdenlinger Good point. Liquidation and Garage Sales and then saving all the proceeds could augment punk savings from paychecks. $$
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- amuhr Mar. 01 at 9:33 PM #
- @marketfolly thn shrt country-etfs (arnt liquid tho, & r alrdy way dwn)… think austria $EWO cld be 1st 2 go. & $EUR demise $$
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- saycarramrod Mar. 01 at 9:33 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald Can you pls give us your thoughts on the effect of the Obama budget on traditional utilities? Is anything safe? $SDP
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:32 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald that’s great defintion of late phase commodity bear: no demand meets just a bit too much supply; can last for awhile $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:30 PM #
- RT @pkedrosky: read bberg tonight. treasury purchases by savings-mad ‘mericans have us back to ’50s levels of Treas buying $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:30 PM #
- @IRON100 i bet we are alreay at 6% savings rate next month 8% by summer 10% thats the problem $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:29 PM #
- @Fullcarry to get a keynesian minsky fix they have to become a majority of the debt massive majority $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:29 PM #
- I call oil at current levels the Languishing Levels. It’s where dead demand growth meets falling supply from non-OPEC. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:28 PM #
- @dvolatility we will find out just how much better USD & bonds can get if DJIA more than 100 lower on open: watch futures indication $$
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- nelderini Mar. 01 at 9:28 PM #
- @mikestiller At sub-$45, crude is a non-issue. We’re setting up an air pocket in the fuel line which we’ll hit ~2011, & price will jump. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:27 PM #
- @atask Tell me how much All Americana can save in the aggregate. I did some work on this already. The sum is “sad.” $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:27 PM #
- USTs and US guaranteed bonds are becoming a much larger portion of the fixed income universe. $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 01 at 9:27 PM #
- at some point Fed needs to adopt an explicit numerical inflation target not just stick head in sand as usual $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:26 PM #
- @TradeIdeas With unemployment rising, and a need to draw on assets already, and debt service, I see piddly results from any Savings push. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 01 at 9:25 PM #
- @GMRobertson re: in fact tey want yield to go up if they do that - Wow - that’s a curve ball! $$
