StockTwits Transcripts

MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday Mar 1, 2009 Part I

kunal00 Mar. 01 at 9:25 PM #
$coin with the m&a going on in the fertilizers…might make a spec play on this $mos $agu $tra all moving

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:25 PM #
@Fullcarry i bet that lack of supply will actually rasies yield treas should rally into supply counterintuitive how they were in 80s $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 01 at 9:25 PM #
@richpuer $TBT has been talked about trade for 4 months & it’s even over that time. if u got bottom (which is 35.51 not 34), you hit it.

Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:25 PM #
@GMRobertson Very much agree in the long term (as in Japan) but in short run supply has dominated. $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:24 PM #
I would like to discuss crude oil. have people forgotten about the pain it caused at 150? inventories getting worked off nicely. $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:24 PM #
i dont think the fed plans to buy treas as way to keep yield down in fact tey want yield to go up if they do that $$

pdenlinger Mar. 01 at 9:24 PM #
@infoarbitrage The fact that someone would write that article and editors which would publish it are monuments to stupidity. $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
think when fed buys treas based upon when bernanke went over this idea in 03, idea ot the ZIRP long treas as way to provide reserves $$

Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
UST supply has been unprecedented. Lets see how USTs act this week w minimal supply. $$

dmccallie Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
RT @GregorMacdonald: Armageddon is an overused word. I prefer the German: Gotterdamerung, for what we face now. :-) $$

infoarbitrage Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
@ppearlman should be interesting in NYC with the weather, Asia down, Europe sure to follow, and presumably light volume. Super volatile $$

TodayTrader Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
@GregorMacdonald With your UST outlook, how do you feel about the $TBT ? A nice chart developing as well. http://twitpic.com/1sggh

MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
@GregorMacdonald indeed, ‘haven’ status is a demanding mistress; needs to be fed by overt equities weakness or she turns cool LOL $$

dvolatility Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
@MacroMeister ok, I’m trying to figure out if there could be a “safe haven” spike into USD, Bills just like CDS spiked.. Thoughts? $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:23 PM #
March 30 Year Bond Futures green. But just barely so. April Gold is firmer, back above 950.00. $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:22 PM #
@GregorMacdonald i still stick with that will add to it is a flat tail long tail and skewed towards that direction $$

Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:22 PM #
I don’t FED has any incentive to buy USTs. They will and are buying Agencies. $$

marketfolly Mar. 01 at 9:22 PM #
@amuhr it would most likely start with a default by a smaller country and then ripple from there $$

infoarbitrage Mar. 01 at 9:22 PM #
RT @pkedrosky: A pathetic WSJ op-ed to argue gw bush isn’t worst president of all time http://bit.ly/Uj8Bo. Intellectually bankrupt. $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:21 PM #
@marketfolly what are you thoughts on a dollar deval and euro rise due to biggest weighting in index. will cause a mess in eurozone? $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:21 PM #
@GMRobertson You said a fat tail final price move (higher) in USTs was possible and I agree. Thing is you’ll need two Atlases to lift. $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:21 PM #
@Fullcarry i dont hold to idea long bonds set by supply demand think set by risk premia some small tech distortions $$

Richpuer Mar. 01 at 9:21 PM #
@lawrencewildman or they are getting it late after smart money…worked for me…bot at 34 sold at 48…then i heard em talking on cnbc $$

brasil61 Mar. 01 at 9:21 PM #
@IRON100 ..yeah I and thats not even talking commercial ..was at the NEW whole foods there..beautiful but the rest of the developmnt .. $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:20 PM #
@Fullcarry i believe this provides small respite, very small. once they buy long end is that game over? buyer of last resort? $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:20 PM #
@Fullcarry Is it not unmistakable that UK /US long gilts/bonds have acted poorly even as risk/gold rose last few weeks? Action looks sick $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:20 PM #
everyone should pray us treasuries go to under 2% across the curve because if they dont means breakdown in currency $$

MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:20 PM #
@dvolatility US T-bond switch out of EQ works fine for ‘haven’, yet if they put bottom in econ, corp debt resurgence draws a lot out $$

amuhr Mar. 01 at 9:20 PM #
@marketfolly been thinking about that for a while now… what are your thoughts on what could happen?… other than more vol $$

Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:19 PM #
Much of the UST long is people waiting for FED to start buying. $$

marketfolly Mar. 01 at 9:19 PM #
while we often focus on the US i think its crucial to monitor eastern europe, possible european defaults, & potential demise of the euro $$

sogorman Mar. 01 at 9:18 PM #
Now I’m sure the Djia will hit 6k tomorrow, my gut is 3:03pm RT @ppearlman: nikkei down a quick 3% , asx -2.5% $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:18 PM #
@nelderini Hugh Hendry of Eclectica in London was buying the UK War Bond for a while. That things has got smacked good and hard. $$

amuhr Mar. 01 at 9:18 PM #
@StockJockey i know that a long-term chart of $gld but doesn’t it seem to be going parabolic?

PureGuesswork Mar. 01 at 9:18 PM #
$$EURUSD. Some interesting possible short term support from a fibonacci perspective. http://bit.ly/JhxmD

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:18 PM #
@MacroMeister Interestingly, price on the 30 Year UST sits well below still, the price highs, even as global equities and macro darkens. $$

michetravi Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
RT @pdenlinger: Obama like pilot pushing plane into dive to prevent stall, gain speed to climb out. Doe s he have enough altitude? $$

niubi Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
http://tr.im/gUG6 China Will Raise Export Rebates as Trade Slows, Xinhua Reports smoot-hawley w chinese characteristics? $$

bluewaterpro Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
@GregorMacdonald SS investment in treasuries impotantly not privatized as pushed for by GWB $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
@GregorMacdonald $TBT Buffet says worried investors are making a costly mistake by buying up U.S. Treasuries that yield almost nothing

beanieville Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
$GLD looks very overcooked. Short.

AriCostello Mar. 01 at 9:17 PM #
@GMRobertson if the underlying (insured) blows-up, then notional and “at risk” should converge — as insuree wants to get paid in full $$

brasil61 Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
$$ How can a place that rents $1000 per month have a price of $200,000 w $550 in HOA and taxes

dvolatility Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
@GregorMacdonald what if we factor in the billions of $ unwinding into UST from domestic equities, people now at 500Mil instead of 1B $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
@mikestiller Yes imo there are only 3 bubbles of last 15 years. Tech Stocks. Housing. And then the Master Bubble: Credit. $$

marketfolly Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
@lawrencewildman agreed re $TBT. also funny so many advocate it for a longterm play when as a trading vehicle its designed for short term

chuckhemann Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
@Mollyinfolode the $YHOO shareholders couldve seen a $30-ish per share payday. See that price anytime soon? I don’t. Second fiddle to google

MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:16 PM #
@mikestiller it even seems at present the US dollar is requiring more weak equity ‘juice’ to push higher; eventually $GD will surpass $$

brasil61 Mar. 01 at 9:15 PM #
$$ Hi all ..just got bak fr west coast of florida ..Naples ..still deluded there and some prices dropped 50% fr peak

dvk1970 Mar. 01 at 9:15 PM #
Trying to reverse engineer the Hindenburg Omen to create the mother of all buy signals http://bit.ly/Od4Hm $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:15 PM #
@GregorMacdonald as you know. i believe “bubble” gets tossed around too freely. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:14 PM #
@GMRobertson Can we settle all outstanding global derivatives right now for 1-2T (if we wanted to?) $$

EverettStuckey Mar. 01 at 9:14 PM #
@GregorMacdonald huh, very odd to hear all these people talking about deflation if only someone had said that weeks ago…….. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:14 PM #
I actually don’t call UST market a bubble. I just think it’s a 27 yr bull market that just ended. $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:13 PM #
@GregorMacdonald yes and no. yen had a similar structural transformation a couple weeks ago. gold too will undergo anti-$ transformation. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 01 at 9:13 PM #
everyone seems to think $TBT is trade of a lifetime which likely means it’s too early to work.

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:13 PM #
@bluewaterpro There is no question that up to this point, cash’s purchasing power has soared. $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 01 at 9:13 PM #
@mikestiller - of course buffett is right on UST as bubble, but he may not be right for a couple years. Yields go up, question is when. $$

IRON100 Mar. 01 at 9:13 PM #
@GregorMacdonald I was never able to figure out how much speculation in the $GLD ETF was factoring into the price of the physical metal.

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:12 PM #
the massive basis between cds and coprorate cash bonds shows much of this is wedged up $$

bluewaterpro Mar. 01 at 9:12 PM #
@GregorMacdonald cash is ultimate deflation hedge $$

chuckhemann Mar. 01 at 9:12 PM #
@DJLitten not for $YHOO shareholders. Idiotic actually from their perspective.

amuhr Mar. 01 at 9:12 PM #
the $EUR and the EU are DUNZO $EURUSD, $FXE, $DRR $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:12 PM #
Do people really think Americans can save any quantity of money, during a depression, that they can devote to UST purchases? How much? $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:11 PM #
it is a mistake to see CDS as 20 30 40 trillion actual exposure is likely something akin to 1 to 2 trillion $$ less than 5 seconds ago $$

howardlindzon Mar. 01 at 9:11 PM #
I agree with @gregormacdonald who is answering questions on @stocktwits right now….gold is it’s own animal right now $$

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:11 PM #
it is a mistake to see CDS as 20 30 40 trillion actual exposure is likely something akin to 1 to 2 trillion $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:11 PM #
@lawrencewildman I agree Americans will TRY to save. But so much spending was credit induced, result favors spending-stop, not saving. $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:11 PM #
would also like to hear peoples comments of Buffett’s on inflation and treasuries? $$

MacroMeister Mar. 01 at 9:10 PM #
@GregorMacdonald on the whole I we coming into a very ‘prismatic’ intermarket influence period; EQ down, but bonds UP? GC UP? USD UP? $$

Fullcarry Mar. 01 at 9:10 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Bernanke has indicated that the most effective measure in the 30s was dollar deval. Stealth version going on right now. $$

distanlo_info Mar. 01 at 9:10 PM #
healthcare had been strong outperformer. got clobbered last week. $XLV overbought vs. spy. http://bit.ly/19AKY4

GMRobertson Mar. 01 at 9:10 PM #
i think gold is function not of inflation but flight to anonimity as ubs client lists challenged and shaken from other currencies $$

lawrencewildman Mar. 01 at 9:09 PM #
@gregormacdonald but if it does rise,deflation continues, and one would want to be short retail & discretionary. other implications? $$

AppleInvestor Mar. 01 at 9:09 PM #
@traderpsyches Numb, complacent, lethargic, reticent. In any case, it’s definitely not panic, and not fear by any conventional measure $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:08 PM #
@mikestiller Gold seems to be in its own universe now. Not saying USD moves would not be influential. Just seems gold independent. $$

bluewaterpro Mar. 01 at 9:08 PM #
Brown to $LYG not too big fail, important precedent being set? http://tinyurl.com/cgfbzq

BPCTrader Mar. 01 at 9:07 PM #
S. Korea down ~3% $$

InEgoVeritas Mar. 01 at 9:06 PM #
@GregorMacdonald The French they would say “C’est la Berezina” referencing the Grande Armee retreat across the said Russian river $$

ppearlman Mar. 01 at 9:06 PM #
nikkei down a quick 3% , asx -2.5% $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:06 PM #
@lawrencewildman OK FWIW: My position on US savings rate is this: Yes it can rise. But no, after Debt Service not much saved in aggregate $$

jonathanks Mar. 01 at 9:06 PM #
@GregorMacdonald can China maintain “healthy” GDP w/ internal consumption/ stimulus or are they for now inescapably an export economy? $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:05 PM #
RT @mojakus still looking for $AIG deriv notionals? p.8 of this presentation shows CDS data: http://tinyurl.com/dzddnz

faustroll Mar. 01 at 9:05 PM #
@GregorMacdonald any thoughts on the great unwind of CDS. on the raising of collateral requirments etc.? $$

mikestiller Mar. 01 at 9:04 PM #
touching on the dollar. IF there is weakness how will gold act? and euro and yen as the two biggest weightings of the DXY index. $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:04 PM #
@EverettStuckey TIger Woods was front-running the Swedish bailout model, clearly, some years ago. :-) $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:03 PM #
@faustroll Mr @mojakus got the latest $AIG derivative *Liabilities* figure. I believe 340B if ALL their CDS had to be paid in full. $$

distanlo_info Mar. 01 at 9:02 PM #
$DUK $AYE AND $D all at new lows for last 2 weeks. $XLU made new low last week. short utilities.

joemaller Mar. 01 at 9:02 PM #
RT @GregorMacdonald 12B for Rail. 180B for $AIG. Even John Maynard Keynes is getting pissed.

EverettStuckey Mar. 01 at 9:02 PM #
@GregorMacdonald can you tell me where i get one of these free swedish models everyone’s talking about? $$

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:02 PM #
I guess the main question is, since we cannot POSSIBLY bail out global derivatives of 40-50 T, why bother with the first 2-3T? $$

faustroll Mar. 01 at 9:02 PM #
@GregorMacdonald did u dig up some of the CDS numbers? twilight of the OTC contracts? $$

IntuitiveTrade Mar. 01 at 9:01 PM #
$VIX $SPX Those who just reply on tech analysis to trade, it didn’t work; it doesn’t usually work in bear markets,try to see the big picture

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:01 PM #
Armageddon is an overused word. I prefer the German: Gotterdamerung, for what we face now. :-) $$

StockTwits Mar. 01 at 9:00 PM #
Welcome @GregorMacdonald for MacroTwits.

GregorMacdonald Mar. 01 at 9:00 PM #
Welcome to MacroTwits. 180B for $AIG. 30B for Roads and Bridges. Who knows, maybe a Fiver for our time here tonight. $$