StockTwits Transcripts

MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday Feb 22, 2009 - Part II

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 10:00 PM #
OK my friends. We are finishing up here. The Gov is trying to divert our attention from the Main Event with this $C nonsense.

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 10:00 PM #
@tradefast going over 50% increases complexity of getting a deal done for banks with foreign operations, $AIG effectively 100% however. $$

howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM
What amazes @gregormacdonald:China already trading dollars for stuff. But,we sit here “pondering” whether buying AU, CU and Oil is right. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
@GregorMacdonald excellent point as well on perverted sense of ‘average’ trend growth created during recent steroidal up cycles $$

SamAntix Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
“Musicals are back…” More bad news. Wasn’t the last Golden Age of musicals… the Great Depression? #oscars $$

RatioTrader Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
$ES_F Futures up almost 10 points in the overnight session. A rally to 789 and I’m going short.

gregorylent Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
china is so far ahead of american thinking that the game is simply over $$

niubi Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
lying citi $c bankers and their advisors r in the negotiations/ripoff deal discussions of their careers

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:59 PM #
RT @pdenlinger: @GregorMacdonald US government is hoping that the tooth fairy will show up and pay off all its debt. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:58 PM #
@lawrencewildman Beyonce has all the capital the US will ever need to rebuild! :-) $$

stockwire_david Feb. 22 at 9:58 PM #
@spencerfry saw you talking about $BAC

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:58 PM #
Here is what amazes me: China is already trading dollars for stuff. But, we sit here “pondering” whether buying AU, CU and Oil is right. $$

IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:57 PM #
@MacroMeister Need to research that myself on $GLD. Could be driven by extraneous factors (as ultrashorts were & are by margin avoidance).

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:57 PM #
@brasil61 yes, sadly, the credit junkie is about to have heart attack wo/ foreclosure mitigation Methadone; banks need that to lend too $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:57 PM #
@pdenlinger Yes. We have entered the Risk Zone wherets becomes clear GDP can never rise fast enough to pay and service the debt. $$

lawrencewildman Feb. 22 at 9:56 PM #
Beyonce in the background, Gregor in the foreground. Maybe America is making a comeback starting tonight. Armageddon is overrated $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:55 PM #
@IRON100 interesting point. yet I wonder how much it matters w/ETF’s now driving it a bit; sentiment may rule ala Greg’s sensibility $$

vreporter Feb. 22 at 9:55 PM #
@DarkSideTrader At $2 last on $C, the market has no choice!

Prospectus Feb. 22 at 9:55 PM #
@dvolatility my dog has more credibility than S&P. He says housing will remain “ruff” through 2010. $$

mattrixDOTinfo Feb. 22 at 9:54 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Reading collection notes on mtg loans I manage, I read all day long about consumers struggling to pay credit & mtg debt $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:54 PM #
@Brodieville and never was good coffee; the genius was to convince everyone ‘milked’ beverages were cool. gotta hand it ‘em; good run $$

Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:54 PM
Govts should be buying Gold so they can stabilize their currencies after devaluations. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:53 PM #
@mattrixDOTinfo I’d like to hear a sober, rigorous speech from a smart person telling me how the US will pay back all its debt. (silence) $$

DarkSideTrader Feb. 22 at 9:52 PM #
@faustroll I’m sure the story is crap, but that won’t stop the market. $C

mattrixDOTinfo Feb. 22 at 9:52 PM #
@GregorMacdonald I feel like the American consumer feels they can not initiate large transactions without the use of debt of some sort. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:52 PM #
@GregorMacdonald a wise sentiment for a happoer P&L; esp if $GLD can’t knock out 1008 near term.

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:52 PM #
@SCMcDonnell This is partly why I simply cannot be long Govt Debt. Inflation, Forgiveness, Repudiation will combine to kill it eventually $$

mattrixDOTinfo Feb. 22 at 9:51 PM #
@gregormacdonald I would agree about our ability to service debt. I’d like to see less credit driven mentalities starting with our gov’t. $$

faustroll Feb. 22 at 9:51 PM #
$C flaky story-floated to keep the thought of bond-holder haircut at bay-$C floated the story to the WSJ-read carefully

liggerpig Feb. 22 at 9:51 PM #
trailed $NQ_F stop to 1180

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:51 PM #
reply
@taoshum That’s what Mary Walker was referring to on Fox News this afternoon; & they cudn’t even make $$ on sex/booze!!! LOL $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:50 PM #
@beanieville I am a major Gold and Silver bull now looking to 2015. But, I happily cede ALL short term ground to traders and sentiment. $$

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:50 PM #
@gregormacdonald I think you are right. I’d rather rip the bandaid off quickly rather than add more layers. $$

Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:49 PM #
Gold prices should be driven by long term inflation expectation. In the early 80s they were exp double digit inflation aka a bad bet. $$

distanlo_info Feb. 22 at 9:49 PM #
My Sector ETF ranking. Utilities have almost as bad past month performance as Financials. Drop most in sector rank http://bit.ly/RU36p $$

beanieville Feb. 22 at 9:49 PM #
So, uh, are you folks shorting or buying more $GLD here? I’d like to know who are my enemies. :)

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:48 PM #
@SCMcDonnell Well, I think it’s going to happen, frankly. I just think it’s going to happen via repudiation of the debt. Tough times. $$

InEgoVeritas Feb. 22 at 9:48 PM #
On TTN : Beijing Automotive Industry may seek to acquire some of Chrysler’s $$

syalam Feb. 22 at 9:47 PM #
$C gets nigerian e-mail scammed - http://tinyurl.com/cblg3t fail already

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:47 PM #
@MATTRIXdotINFO Americans can start saving right here, right now. But here is the problem: after debt service, we can’t save that much. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:47 PM #
@GregorMacdonald @geckojb especially consider $GLD prev. run-ups at least partially driven by growth, this one different; v. anticipatory

bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:46 PM #
@scornick strike price a negotiation but probably near current price, if higher even more accretive. $C

niubi Feb. 22 at 9:46 PM #
news of $c pushed asian markets way off their lows. every1 loves a handout…

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:45 PM #
@gregormacdonald yes, that is my belief and history shows that people/groups who stuck to their principles always win - examples abound. $$

WallStreetFolly Feb. 22 at 9:45 PM #
Citigroup: Talks are said to be underway with the US government for a substantially larger stake — 25 to 40% $C.. http://tinyurl.com/dao3jn

beanieville Feb. 22 at 9:44 PM #
@fundmyfund Now, that is a man of few words! :) $$

scornick Feb. 22 at 9:44 PM #
where does the government get it’s $C strike price????

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:43 PM #
@SCMcDonnell I can appreciate that sentiment. So, we are better off in a collapsed state with no capital, but with principles intact? $$

niubi Feb. 22 at 9:43 PM #
@The_Real_Fly @dougkass but $c rescue III will likely save those who went long last week..for now

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:42 PM #
@Fullcarry if u consider gov’t ended de facto owning & no incentive for private investment, nacks up my idea on ‘floor’ also ‘ceiling’ $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:42 PM #
RT going over 50% increases complexity of getting a deal done for banks with foreign operations, $AIG effectively 100% however. $$

Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:42 PM #
In the MIsean definition a flight from currency is inflation. It reflects lack of demand for the money. $$

fundmyfund Feb. 22 at 9:42 PM #
mauldin good read this week. http://is.gd/kusV I’d be worried but citigroup is saved so everything is ok. $

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:41 PM #
@gregormacdonald there will be no capital but there will be an American will — a will that is only doused by government action. $

mikestiller Feb. 22 at 9:41 PM #
@MacroMeister public/private idea will only work if govt backstops a portion of the losses. agree? $$

5thAvenueWSM Feb. 22 at 9:41 PM #
$C So you think this stock is going to go down even further? I mean 1.95 is pretty crappy considering the governments potential large stake

bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:40 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Yes if they use Citi model, gov will be welcomed to buy as much common as they want. $

coffeygrinds Feb. 22 at 9:40 PM #
@dirty_snowflake I noticed those white $crox as well…gay..

beanieville Feb. 22 at 9:40 PM #
@jr33 Sure, if the gap is too big, they will fade it a little… but remember we got that @McHammer on friday $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:40 PM #
@GregorMacdonald indeed, but GSE precedent is so toxic I am rather hoping Obama is playing poker w/foreclosure program nego than that $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:40 PM #
@geckojb My view is the gold is expressing multiple forces right now. Safety. Destruction of paper money. And both inflation/deflation. $$

fundmyfund Feb. 22 at 9:39 PM #
$C why are we bailing out stock holders in a failed institution? with tax dollars. Only in Cramerica.

taoshum Feb. 22 at 9:38 PM #
$JCP is advertising like mad on the Oscars… do they have the bucks or are they gambling?

Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:38 PM #
@MacroMeister For a big bank needing to borrow gobs of money it might not be terrible thing. The private/public thing worked for $FNM. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:38 PM #
@SCMcDonnell Let’s say we go the Liquidationist route. How much capital is left over to run the economy. To rebuild?

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:38 PM #
@5thAvenueWSM you’ll only find realists here. $$

dakapbj Feb. 22 at 9:38 PM #
@tradefast - hmm, i follow - to a degree - somewhat complicated to me anyway $c

5thAvenueWSM Feb. 22 at 9:37 PM #
So does anyone think buying $C is a good idea?

blinker57 Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
$ES_F NOW bouncing off 50% fib extension. Nice fib action.

tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
@IRON100 going over 50% increases complexity of getting a deal done for banks with foreign operations, $AIG effectively 100% however

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
@GregorMacdonald who wants the gov’t as a biz partner: repeat… they cudn’t make money on sex/booze @ Mustang Ranch $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
@IRON100 @MacroMeister You see I am thinking that Timmy and Co. try to get “cute” with nationallzation. Hence my 49% idea. $$

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
Without the ability to fail we have lost our ability to learn. America stops here. $$

Prospectus Feb. 22 at 9:36 PM #
@Kevin_Maloney Glad you like. I had an idea for one more style for VWAPALOOZA, so keep your eyes peeled for an update sometime tomorrow $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:35 PM #
@geckojb But gold is telling you to be on lookout for reflation of all unencumbered assets. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:35 PM #
@GregorMacdonald there’s an old commods biz axiomatic question: when is a floor a ceiling? 49% gov’t ownership = $C perma-top at $4

IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:34 PM #
@powitz Which is why I favor letting car makers fail and let new capital and non-union labor take a crack at the next generation of cars. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:34 PM #
@geckojb I’m still bifurcated. Crossroads is here. We either reflate now,or do another big leg down deflationary-style in all assets . $$

tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:33 PM #
@GregorMacdonald 49% seems like a good ballpark estimate given what is being leaked about $C in the past hour

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:33 PM #
@GregorMacdonald …if they are as stupid as to replicate the pre-nationalization phase of GSE’s; then who will touch them? $$

tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:31 PM
@bluewaterpro yup, if govt accepts the proported offer, $C is probably not going bankrupt anytime soon - absent ‘toxic’ asset ‘surprises’

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:30 PM #
I’ll make a prediction: The government will try nationalization first to a level of 49% of all the big money center banks. $$
Moneygrows Feb. 22 at 9:30 PM #
Expecting rise into $FSLR Earnings Tues - then falling after report - day trades only

rhodiumrecords Feb. 22 at 9:30 PM #
RT @howardlindzon: all the twitter music apps and sites http://ginx.com/-CfLP $$

LeonardTheMonke Feb. 22 at 9:30 PM #
Going naked long is feeling right - maybe it will even last for a whole 2 days! $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:30 PM #
@powitz Agreed. And technology is a derivative of a functioning capital market with lots of built up capital. You can see what cd happen. $$

SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM #
When they have to nationalize the banks in the middle of a trading day things may start to change. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM
@beanieville get a hold of yourself :-) market breaks on speeches into WED… NEW MOON; then squeeze bears & CNBC declares victory $$