StockTwits Transcripts

February 23

MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday Feb 22, 2009 - Part I

  • ToddSullivan Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM #
  • RT @infoarbitrage: Words are inadequate to describe the latest $C non-plan,: weak; lacking vision; pandering; defensive; just plain dumb $$
  • SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM #
  • The fact they did this, again, on a Sunday night shows they are trying to prop up the market before open. $$
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM #
  • @GregorMacDonald If nothing else, Gold would be rational basis for comparison of currency value. unless other commodities are thrown in. $$
  • Ed Feb. 22 at 9:29 PM #
  • @womapp The Fed is looking at assuming 40% of lousy Citigroup http://is.gd/kupa ! How about if Clinton pal Rubin gives back 110mm bilked $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:28 PM #
  • @tradefast bankruptcy? with $45 billion just converted into common by the government. I think not. $C
  • mikestiller Feb. 22 at 9:28 PM #
  • what happens when gold and USD do not move together and when Yen doesn’t necessarily follow dollar? $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:27 PM #
  • DXY weaker still to 86.18. I gather TA folks on the Dollar index are thinking double top? The fundamentals would support that view. $$
  • ericjackson Feb. 22 at 9:27 PM #
  • Remember the critics saying govt was lurching from 1 solution to next? That’s what $c sounds like.
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • @upsidetrader Lets all hope we can afford to wear shorts by the end of the week lol $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • @wallstreet1929 quite the opposite, if this is true, they have increased their capital ratio, reduced expenses and assured common, wow $C
  • TraderAlamo Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • @howardlindzon that is a wonderful mantra….maybe throw one or two currencies in that mix and bingo…hard assets and inverses! $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • I really do wish the hyper rationalists who are generally correct to doubt Gold, would stop now and consider the role Gold might play. $$
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • @WeeklyTA And $BAC was held at gunpoint to marry $MER. That one is next (and again, that starts the whole thing about safe banks nationwide.
  • LeonardTheMonke Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • This will help the banks $C and $BAC raise private money - along with some more govt. backdoor dealing!
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:26 PM #
  • @dakapbj it is not easy to identify the fulcrum security is in $C capital structure, but i think preferred has positive value in bankruptcy
  • howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:24 PM #
  • Key $c takeaway metals and oil will be higher when the splurge is all said and done and equities will be MUCH MUCH lower. start a web biz.
  • fortune8 Feb. 22 at 9:24 PM #
  • Good night folks. All the noise is not going to do me any good. See you at the open $$
  • WeeklyTA Feb. 22 at 9:24 PM #
  • @IRON100 What’s so ridiculous is that $C’s cap is $10B lol. Let’s not forget about $BAC.
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:23 PM #
  • @powitz Empire collapse is both a big historical trend, and, a case by case phenomenon. Having weapons is “good” I suppose. $
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:23 PM #
  • $C if only govt owned preferred is exchanged, skeptics (self proclaimed ‘realists’) will likely view transaction as another bailout
  • dakapbj Feb. 22 at 9:23 PM #
  • @tradefast - $c - why wud priv preferreds want to participate and how many more commons would they issue?
  • infoarbitrage Feb. 22 at 9:23 PM #
  • Words are inadequate to describe the latest $C non-plan, but I’ll try: weak; lacking vision; pandering; defensive; just plain dumb $$
  • MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:22 PM #
  • $$ …only half joking on last one: CNN this eve. Donovan was talking about how plan would work for loan-to-value of up to 150% !! No Joke
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:22 PM #
  • Remember, Fannie and Freddie are already vehicles to repudiate private debt. It’s just a building block for broader repudiation. $$
  • vreporter Feb. 22 at 9:21 PM #
  • @powitz yes I would assume it’s even better for “safer” banks such as $BAC but not necessarily in immediate stock surge IMO. Huge for $C
  • MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:21 PM #
  • $$ …and what is really interesting is Obama combo appearance w/Geithner &… HUD head Donovan WED; also NEW MOON AoooooooooooHHH :-)
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:21 PM #
  • We have to think more about the endgame to all this nationalization. Where are USD, Gold, USTs when we have nationalized the whole thing? $$
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:21 PM #
  • $C I would view a C preferred for common transaction much more favorably if private preferred holders participate on pro rata basis
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:19 PM #
  • @GregorMacDonald On the way back from Florida, listening to the goofiness on CNBC, I felt (and still feel) that very same way. $$
  • MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:19 PM #
  • $$ still say look to Obama foreclosure prevention to move to more aggressive direct gov’t funding instead of waiting to shore up banks
  • ari5000 Feb. 22 at 9:18 PM #
  • I’m thinking $spy to 81 would fill the gap and be the ideal upside target on a squeeze rally. But it may fade early cuz it’s all such b.s.
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:18 PM #
  • So on the Fallen Empire theme, starting last year, I have been looking at the British story post WW2. I assume you all will get my drift. $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:18 PM #
  • @powitz Good news for all financials it shows gov is comitted to common shareholders $FAS
  • MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:17 PM #
  • @GregorMacdonald RE: natlz’n: Mary Walter on FOX: Forget nationalizing banks; US-G cudn’t make $$ selling sex/booze at Mustang Ranch LOL $$
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:16 PM #
  • $C if govt pfd is converted into 5B shares of common, govt will own 48% of C - transaction price would be 45B/5B=$9, assuming pfd worth par
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:16 PM #
  • …the theme of Fallen Empires was running through my gut, every minute. $$
  • powitz Feb. 22 at 9:16 PM #
  • $$ So if this is “good” news for $C, is it even better news for $BAC? Just askin’?
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:16 PM #
  • I have to make at least one Tweet that mixes Macro and the Oscars. I went to see Slumdog last night. And let me tell you… $$
  • mikestiller Feb. 22 at 9:15 PM #
  • would anyone be surprised if upward pressure in oil n.t dragged up gold?? $$
  • nyc_mom Feb. 22 at 9:15 PM #
  • @howardlindzon if I wanted to know $aapl’s price right now is it the same as at close of After hours friday?
  • howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:15 PM #
  • go follow @gregormacdonald for some sick global macro analysis everyday and sundays at 9 eastern for an hour on twitter $$
  • ari5000 Feb. 22 at 9:15 PM #
  • much as $FNM is still worth $500 mil. despite it all.. perhaps $C has reached its ‘can’t get lower’ price - or close enuf with govt. $$
  • SCMcDonnell Feb. 22 at 9:14 PM #
  • Someone explain to me how this LONG-TERM bullish? $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:13 PM #
  • Have spent the weekend looking at the Rate of Change in the ratio of US Public Debt/GDP. Anyone looking at this? It’s one helluva Delta $$
  • howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:13 PM #
  • I am so sick of late sunday night bullshit stock market propping. The US markets have become rigged and dumb. $$
  • dakapbj Feb. 22 at 9:13 PM #
  • great depression - gov’t seized 4000 banks - cut salaries, people etc - sound familiar ? maybe not? $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:11 PM #
  • Nationalization is just a trade in terms of financial equities. But it’s a monster theme for Gold, Forex, and Sovereign Debt. $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:11 PM #
  • @medicvz Consensus was Gov would wipe out common shareholders not slum it with them. Total turnaround. $C
  • DougKass Feb. 22 at 9:11 PM #
  • if citigroups preferred holders have value with equity conversion its a better outcome than many expected $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:10 PM #
  • @Fullcarry Japan Gov Debt has for two decades enjoyed the cash flow of strong exports and a nation of savers. Two LifeLines we lack, yes? $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:10 PM #
  • @dakapbj This assures survival of common and removes huge multi-billion $ dividen payment. $C
  • Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:09 PM #
  • @GregorMacdonald Sov debt should get discounted but the japanese exp in the 90s gives me pause. Debt/GDP ration had no imp on JGBs $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:09 PM #
  • @mikestiller What’s notable is how many days in 2009, the pull in senior sovereign debt from Germany, UK, to US has been DOWN (in price) $$
  • medicvz Feb. 22 at 9:09 PM #
  • $$ I thought fears of nationalization had participants running for the exits last week- shows just how irrational the market is
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:08 PM #
  • @IRON100 The government can save the entire banking system of course. With printed money. Just like they can monetize Treasuries. Ho ho. $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:07 PM #
  • I would remind that although it’s just a theoretical instrument, credit default CDS on US Debt reached 100 on Friday. $$
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:07 PM #
  • @powitz especially if gov forgives dividend expense on preferred they already own and convert to common $C
  • MacroMeister Feb. 22 at 9:07 PM #
  • @powitz except that at some point the public wants know what they get in return; even if that’s misguided re: sustaining econ $$
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:07 PM #
  • @donthorp If the government is seen as being able to save the biggest banks $BAC and $C, then it will be nearly required to save them all.
  • IRON100 Feb. 22 at 9:06 PM #
  • @donthorp I think there are now a lot of banks that do not have the media exposure of $C that are in trouble.
  • mikestiller Feb. 22 at 9:05 PM #
  • @GregorMacdonald bonds too weak on this news/weak dollar and $94 billion supply coming to market this week in 2s 5s and 7s. $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:05 PM #
  • @RFDAmerica Gold for many is just a trade. For me it is saying multiple things right now. Money revulsion the most primary. $$
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:04 PM #
  • @dmooney9 $DIS vacations book several months in advance, and they are running large discounts, stock may be cheap, but earnings dropping
  • powitz Feb. 22 at 9:04 PM #
  • Would like to pose a question, if $BAC & $C et al can borrow from the Fed for 0%, what does it really matter? Can’t they perpetually exist?
  • Nickhp44 Feb. 22 at 9:04 PM
  • Should i get out of my long position in $C? or will these rumors push the stock higher? Please let me know what you guys think…
  • Fullcarry Feb. 22 at 9:03 PM #
  • Sovereigns are increasingly absorbing credit risk converting credit risk to currency dilution risk. $$
  • dakapbj Feb. 22 at 9:02 PM #
  • love the subtitle to the WSJ article: Taxpayers Could Own Up to 40% of Bank’s Common Stock, Diluting Value of Shares - u think? $$
  • howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:02 PM #
  • shorts could get squeezed hard at open on $c shittybank news. @dougkass says the news is bullish
  • tradefast Feb. 22 at 9:02 PM
  • seems very unlikely, to this observer, that $C would put forth a proposal that dilutes VALUE of common shares - govt may balk, at what cost?
  • bluewaterpro Feb. 22 at 9:02 PM #
  • @dakapbj Think $FAS Gov is assuring common holders they will not be wiped. no preferred increases TCE ratio. Extremely bullish if true! $C
  • rfurlan Feb. 22 at 9:01 PM #
  • @howardlindzon Establish a special tweet format for entries/exits so in Nov you can look back, tally results and pick nominees $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:01 PM
  • The big news tonight is nationalization of course. Which looks like they are going with Incrementalism. Implications for Gold and Bonds. $$
  • DougKass Feb. 22 at 9:01 PM #
  • futures reverse on news that US might convert preferreds in Citigroup into common equity, very bullish for markets $$
  • howardlindzon Feb. 22 at 9:00 PM #
  • Categories for stocktweeties include -asshat, guru, short trade of year, option trade of the year, Best Cramer putdown, Best CNBC parody $$
  • GregorMacdonald Feb. 22 at 9:00 PM #
  • Last Sunday night I kept hammering away at the Yen. But this week was a true surprise. Although the Yen weakened, it did zero for stocks. $$