StockTwits Transcripts

MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday Feb 15, 2009 Part II

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 10:04 PM
Stocktwits is working on getting transcripts. It’s a very good discussion to read. $$

StockJockey Feb. 15 at 10:03 PM
Yen collapsed in last major Japanese recession, more to it this time but read that previous piece $$

NJHounds Feb. 15 at 10:03 PM #
Here here to Gregor $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 10:02 PM #
Another very good discussion tonight. I think the chart from @howardlindzon was worth study: http://twitpic.com/1il34 $$

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 10:01 PM
@EverettStuckey In other words done, but still capable of buying our expanded debt offerings?? $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 10:01 PM #
@GregorMacdonald like stealth aspect: sneaking thru World Bank; kinds like when Plaza used other firms to cover bond shorts (4 DrDoom) $$

StockJockey Feb. 15 at 10:01 PM #
$FXY Capital flows into yen ending? http://tinyurl.com/cw5xsv

IRON100 Feb. 15 at 10:01 PM #
@GregorMacDonald Thank you for your contributions to the knowledgebase in this community $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
@dmooney9 naaaah now at all just call ‘em like i see ‘em or roubini & taleb see ‘em $$

daytradinggenie Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
Chart of Gold and Oil prices since 1989 $$ http://bit.ly/lYStz (via @johnpingel) Great chart / eithe $gld tanks or crude flies!

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
only way to stop the mess is to pay each citizen the funds to reduce their debts and not to the banks directly..money better spent $$

lawrencewildman Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
$$ Yen has to weaken within 3-4 months… or else, short civilization.

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
@bluewaterpro the Chinese do in order to keep their exports cheap. if not then our exports become more competitive its win win for US $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 10:00 PM #
because of the leverage of 50:1 in some Euro banks and Eastern bloc exposure $$

powitz Feb. 15 at 9:59 PM
maybe the contest should be, which country has a revolution first? $$

brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:59 PM
$$ speaking of yen $EURJPY bearish 240 bar and threatening breakdown now..

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:58 PM
with the Euro countries breaking down, and their total debt to GDP ratio at twice that of US (rounded), the money flows to liquidity Yen $$

NJHounds Feb. 15 at 9:58 PM #
@MacroMeister but govt is the 800# gorilla in the room $$

dmooney9 Feb. 15 at 9:58 PM #
@EverettStuckey u r 1 doom and gloom guy LOL $$

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 9:58 PM #
@EverettStuckey disgaree with internal demand, and if they are done who buys our debt?

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:58 PM #
OK. Ton finish up, here is my Yen call. BOJ does world flood of Yen. No later than 2-3 month from now ( a process). $$

rechtsteiner Feb. 15 at 9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald I think the Yen weakens throughout the next 30 days based upon deteriorating sentiments, not much else. $$

brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:57 PM
@IRON100 yes iron this is getting really serious now..I think irrepairably so $$

ppearlman Feb. 15 at 9:57 PM
@powitz see gregor’s blog at www.gregor.us he has written extensively on transportation and energy policy wrt Obama Admin $$

brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@GregorMacdonald short govts ..sadly ..rightly so..this has been one giant cluster Fcuk $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@powitz Spend 300 billion alone on Utility Grade Solar and Rail. $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@bluewaterpro china done . was a product of excess consumer spending in the west selling people shit the don’t need. no internal demand $$

adamsussman Feb. 15 at 9:56 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Jim”Bowtie”is hunting for the next currency to go,where u headed?andfor my Yen call,a range for3-6months then downfast $$

marketfolly Feb. 15 at 9:55 PM #
agree with @MacroMeister yen and equities inverse relationship will continue to play follow the leader. but question is, who leads? $$

powitz Feb. 15 at 9:55 PM #
@GregorMacdonald if you could advise the Obama Administration, what would you be telling them to do? $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:55 PM #
@GregorMacdonald and we can all hang on the US gov’t housing relief plan: live or die. unless it stablizes liquidity is a chimera (more) $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:55 PM #
@brasil61 Huge risk now is collapse of faith in Authority and Government. World going “short” governments. $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:55 PM #
short term on yen, it gets the flows one more leg, and could be a crusher $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:54 PM
@bluewaterpro My FEB newsletter will deal with PetroState risk. There are serious problems in the making. $$

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:54 PM
@Fullcarry thats why $MS is the best short left for finnies…storing oil and losing their ass

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
tar sands oil b/e is $70, Angola deep water b/e is $60 $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
@GregorMacdonald i think the issue is the opec & non-opec suppliers are levered and long and have to keep selling oil to cover budget $$

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
@haxen1 problem with $pbr is the price of oil is not priced in there yet…more downside for the yr on oil stocks even if crude rallies
Ticker: PBR

g3trading Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
oil was under $30 a few years ago, but aslo, a lot less dollars around too $$

brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
$$ Can’t imagine anyone being impressed w world govt actions so far ..this implies to me the current trend w stretch further th most expect

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:53 PM #
We’re going to be finishing up in about 8 minutes. $$

Finroe Feb. 15 at 9:52 PM #
@KeithShepard agreed, unbelievable amounts of info is running through here $$

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:51 PM #
All I know is that with crude at $36..western friendly sources of oil are out of the market….like Canada etc… $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:51 PM #
@daytradinggenie more so purchasing power of fiat currencies destroyed that supports GC; and it too will fall later, only much later $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:51 PM #
@haxen1 That’s right. The spread between non-OPEC oil cost and OPEC oil cost is now huge. $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:51 PM #
@IRON100 so i don’t see why is can’t go back. i’m pretty sure China and India are done along with Eastern Europe $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:50 PM #
I expect to see low $30s on spot oil, perhaps some $20 handles before it turns. BTW, $PBR a nice way to get long oil on dips $$
Ticker: PBR

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:50 PM #
@EverettStuckey Oil was at 25.00 but marginal bbl in non-OPEC went through a radical upward move since then. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:49 PM #
@powitz War is one cure. $$

daytradinggenie Feb. 15 at 9:48 PM #
if money is being destroyed, who’s going to have any to buy $gld at higher prices?
Ticker: GLD

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@GregorMacdonald RT Weight of the Yen, good section on Endaka, JPN’s bubble $$

jonathanks Feb. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@haxen1 — re: JP purchase of US companies in 80s: growing influx of Chinese buyers of distressed US real estate $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@GregorMacdonald wasn’t oil at $25 at in like 2002? $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:48 PM #
@GregorMacdonald there is a cost of production game being played out in oil, OPEC holds the $18 lifting cost per barrel cards $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:47 PM #
@MacroMeister BOJ mercantilist finesse: shovel Yen to IMF, World, Bank, and then *create” new SDRs (money) in each! $$

mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:47 PM #
@BHBGroupTrader crude should outperform, but doesnt mean gold retreats, it will get dragged with whatever move oil makes $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:46 PM #
@haxen1 It’s broader then just decoupling. Oil at 36 is free. Oil at 36 is like seeing all the animals die. Industrial bubonic plague. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:46 PM #
@GregorMacdonald I’ve been trying to figure out how BoJ pulls off next mercantilist finesse; I think you’ve got it. Thx 4 that $$

KeithShepard Feb. 15 at 9:45 PM #
Good stuff. Learning a lot reading the MacroTwits stream tonight. $$

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:45 PM #
@ppearlman I agree with oil catching gold in terms of the ratio coming back in to line…gold bulls either get smacked or crude rallies $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:45 PM #
@bluewaterpro I expect Japan to be an interested participant in the TALF programs once they are reasonably set up $$

dmooney9 Feb. 15 at 9:45 PM #
Thanks @stocktwits macro Sunday great stuff $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:44 PM #
Suggested reading: The Weight of the Yen. $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:44 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Gold decoupling from energy complex is a flight to “implied safety”, getting to be a crowded trade $$

ToddSullivan Feb. 15 at 9:44 PM #
@GregorMacdonald so the choice gold vs oil is “reversion to mean” or “revulsion of paper currency” ? $$

ppearlman Feb. 15 at 9:44 PM #
@GregorMacdonald i believe this resolves with oil moving higher tho 1st it chops and continues to dishearten bulls„, then bam off to 70. $$

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 9:43 PM #
@haxen1 Last summer all the talk was JPN banks buying US banks why not now?? $BAC $WFC

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:43 PM #
@brasil61 did you really mean 80 ? $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:42 PM #
Japan bought US assets bigtime in the late 80s early 90s $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:42 PM #
@daytradinggenie Dire for global economic activity. It’s a sign that money is being destroyed as industrialism collapses. $$

haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:41 PM #
Strong yen allows Japan to export their industrial clout, purchase up foreign competitors or assets $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:41 PM #
@haxen1 We are getting towards historic strength of Gold against Oil. It’s either totally unsustainable or a message of darkness. :-) $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:41 PM #
@GregorMacdonald even if pressure intially from infl. fear, replacement val eventually rides to rescue; it’ll be $17 for ur skim latte $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:39 PM #
@darin_f My call for the next Yen news: BOJ will increase Yen loans to World Bank and IMF as a way to reflate world (and themselves). $$

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 9:39 PM #
@ToddSullivan agree with gold, silver but diamond value manipulated by control cartel, little intrinsic value $GLD $SLV

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:38 PM #
to me the Yen is showing early signs of a weakening uptrend …meaning equities will try to rally $$

JonFung Feb. 15 at 9:37 PM #
@GregorMacdonald I heard they’re considering devaluing the Yen by printing more money, which would be nice for their dying exporters. $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:37 PM #
There is a Yen thesis that the Yen could soar so high that it turns Japan into a pile of industrial rubble. $$

darin_f Feb. 15 at 9:36 PM #
@brasil61 When does the BOJ step in? Yen at 80 kills japanese companies $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:36 PM #
@brasil61 A number of us tweeted this week, like @atask, that Gold buying so much oil was a dire signal. $$

dakapbj Feb. 15 at 9:35 PM #
@MDabbles -true - funny enuf -guys on my team trade coins on ebay as if it were shares of $gld ! ha!
Ticker: GLD

dakapbj Feb. 15 at 9:34 PM #
$$ -i must saying that my ‘stocktwits: all” on the tweetdeck is rolling likes its 10:00 am on tuesday - good stuff!

bluewaterpro Feb. 15 at 9:34 PM #
@CubbieBears $GLD runaway freight train, whatchamean?
Ticker: GLD

brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:34 PM #
$$ yen is stretched down ..when ever it moves 2000 pips has to retrace some..by my eye 80 will happen

ToddSullivan Feb. 15 at 9:33 PM #
@ppearlman isn’t gold,silver,diamonds the few items accepted as currency through out the world? $$

EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:33 PM #
@GregorMacdonald @howardlindzon i’ve got it lets horde pennies if inflation comes we can melt them down for the zinc if deflation use da $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:32 PM #
@Fullcarry That is a terrific observation. You are saying that the first whiff of inflation is the most pungent yes? The trigger? $$

howardlindzon Feb. 15 at 9:32 PM #
@Ed just reminder that a coil is happening and we could have a monster year long rally at any moment even while bear persists $$Ticker: TBT

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:32 PM #
If the Yen tanks (weakens) then the Nikkei 27 year chart, and the SPX 10 year chart stir like monsters. $$

CubbieBears Feb. 15 at 9:31 PM #
@bluewaterpro u think $GLD chart looks bad???
Ticker: GLD

howardlindzon Feb. 15 at 9:31 PM #
Obama loves Stocktwits. sweet http://twitpic.com/1il91 $$

mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:31 PM #
@GregorMacdonald something changing in yen last week or so. $$

MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:31 PM #
@howardlindzon v. nice l.t. reminder though; thx. all gets back to housing & whether they wake up & stop throwing $$ only at banks $$

GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:30 PM #
We have to figure out the Yen, people. The Yen is one of the magic locks to the global gates. $$

ppearlman Feb. 15 at 9:30 PM #
i dont buy the “gold has little intrinic value” view. it has held value so long is ingrained in collective psyche. evolutionary basis.. $$

mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:30 PM #
@mikestiller wait for signs of stagflation/reflation. $$

BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:29 PM #
@brasil61 and that is the true tell on global activity..crude oil is key and the switch from crude to gold strength says it all $$

mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:28 PM #
@GregorMacdonald true but golds violent move is yet to come. Thus far just some fx race to zero. Best is yet to come. $$