haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:28 PM #
$TBT trading in nice up channel, use trendlines, oscillator and BB, will close gap at 54 $$ TBT
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:28 PM #
@StockJockey OK he was saying short-side pressure in UST’s is coming from $TBT ? With all this gargantuan supply? Color me doubtful. $$ TBT
StockJockey Feb. 15 at 9:26 PM #
@gregormacdonald Bubble in $TBT is from bloggers dissecting it. Hempton smart and wrong a lot, like on Friday. U have Rebuke for his thesis? TBT
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:25 PM #
@GregorMacdonald another big disconnect is Libor rates up on weak equities (credit concerns); too tricky to take sustained positions $$
brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:25 PM #
$$ what can’t the US do if it wanted ..it could shift into a domestic market foster trade w canada and mexico ..easier th china can
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:25 PM #
Anyone willing to grant that gold has done well since the deflationary trend started in July? $$
marketfolly Feb. 15 at 9:25 PM #
Jim Rogers expects Japanese Yen to rise another 10-15%. He currently owns a basket of currencies http://is.gd/jDTV $$
mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:24 PM #
@GregorMacdonald this week will be telling on auction success. I believe settle on Tuesday plus more supply coming to mkt. 2s 5s and 7s. $$
g3trading Feb. 15 at 9:23 PM #
@brasil61 gold does have similar characteristics of paper money, except scarcity $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:23 PM #
@jonathanks I only have two: Yen strength cannot continue indefinately. Long-end sovereigns are buckling from supply. $$
haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:22 PM #
huge decoupling between energy complex and precious metals $$
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:22 PM #
@mikestiller …here’s the really Bolshie thought from a conservative: partially nationalize housing by eating neg. equity :-O $$
EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:21 PM #
@bluewaterpro still no diff. you can buy any resellable asset as protection for inflation gold is the dumbest because it lacks utility $$
g3trading Feb. 15 at 9:21 PM #
@EverettStuckey made a good point. monetary base increasing with demand for assets decreasing, but demand for gold seems to b increasing $$
BHBGroupTrader Feb. 15 at 9:21 PM #
@GregorMacdonald AUD rides up when the govts of the world stop the devaluation process that seems to have been decided on at g-20 last yr $$
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:20 PM #
@mikestiller in creative destruction US culture bank nationalization worst case scenario for stifling innovation/investment (more)… $$
brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:20 PM #
retweet this agree w mr stuckey “there’s no difference between gold and paper” $$
EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:19 PM #
@NDoubles fine but you can make that argument for any rock not just the yellow ones. there’s use for gold. there’s a massive over supply $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:18 PM #
@EverettStuckey We will have to argue tautologies and philosophies of gold more at length. For now, the world wants it.. $$
ppearlman Feb. 15 at 9:18 PM #
there is no paper that has held value nearly as long as gold has, none for 1/10 the time… 1/100th… $$
distanlo_info Feb. 15 at 9:18 PM #
interested yo hear your thoughts on how this past week’s treasury auction went? success, failure? $$
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:17 PM #
@GregorMacdonald reflation scenario supporting commodity currencies likely; even look at recent subtle shifts $$
mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:16 PM #
feelings on bank nationalization and affects on $USD. Swedish krone depreciated 25% in 1992 on plan. How does this affect US bonds? $$ USD
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@GregorMacdonald while long ends supported on breaks in the near term by econ weakness, sharp rallies always earmark of bear markets $$
EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:16 PM #
@howardlindzon the question is whether the increase in the money supply the offset the deflation but demand for assets is dropping fastr $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:15 PM #
If we look at 30 years of AUD and Gold, one also has to wonder when AUD rides up with Gold. $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:13 PM #
@adamsussman I don’t see any big RMB move unless there is global financial rupture, and BOC can no longer hold peg to USD. $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:12 PM #
@EverettStuckey So you’re not on board with the idea that money is being destroyed. You prefer paper over gold as govts reflate? $$
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:11 PM #
@mikestiller vey possibly; it always was a poor candidate for ‘haven’ currency vs panic repatriation. v. much in line w/ Gregor’s views $$
EverettStuckey Feb. 15 at 9:10 PM #
@GregorMacdonald i mean come on its almost as bad as the yen (actually its worse) there’s no reason for either to be going up $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:09 PM #
@mikestiller My hunch is Gilt strength was blowback from BOE intentions to buy long end. I think Gilts head back down soon just like USTs $$
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:09 PM #
@mikestiller true, but that was back when emotion of Fed squeeze made US long end a free-for-all; no ECB bond purchase pgm ;-) $$
lawrencewildman Feb. 15 at 9:09 PM #
$$ Indeed, for every individual equity buy i make, i’m shorting industry laggard. Long $AXP , Short $COF for instance. AXP COF
lawrencewildman Feb. 15 at 9:08 PM #
In a world where unhedged trades feel reckless, long $EWJ and short $SPY seems rational given surplus/deficit dynamics in each country. EWJ SPY
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:07 PM #
@GregorMacdonald also still poss. respondong in part to USD faux ‘haven’ status while its ‘worse elsewhere’ (esp 3rd world etc.) $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:07 PM #
Remember MacroTwitters: you must use double $$ symbols to be seen in the channel. $$
marketfolly Feb. 15 at 9:07 PM #
starting to see some ‘rounded bottoms’ if you will on some commodity currencies like AUD and CAD $FXA $FXC $$ FXA FXC
brasil61 Feb. 15 at 9:07 PM #
$$ yen on monthly chart looks to me came far fast ..needs breather but a test of 80 looks in the cards
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:06 PM #
@mikestiller Gilts and Bunds also classical upside overreaction after sharp downdraft during UK Jan crisis; T-notes are stable one LOL $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:05 PM #
@howardlindzon Important chart levels abound. From 27 year Nikkei and 9 year SPX (as you pointed out) to Silver. I think Silver rips. $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:04 PM #
@MacroMeister The entire forex complex clearly wants to lean bullish. But equities and a guy named Tim Geithner wont allow it. :-) $$
dakapbj Feb. 15 at 9:03 PM #
starting to feel like doom and gloom is knocking - is anybody out there glass half full? all these charts are so ominous, any $slv lining? SLV
MacroMeister Feb. 15 at 9:02 PM #
@GregorMacdonald Interesting perspective in the way that JPY did not get a bid on the weakish equities finish last week $$
mikestiller Feb. 15 at 9:02 PM #
@GregorMacdonald id like to introduce the gilts and bunds strength last week. Gilts on boe comments, bunds on failed auction. $$
haxen1 Feb. 15 at 9:01 PM #
Gold decoupling with inflation threats, interesting phenomenon $$
texaszman Feb. 15 at 9:01 PM #
RT @GregorMacdonald : Japan GDP at depression levels -12.7% annualized. Yet, we are seeing global debt (yields) rise. Alot. Scared yet? $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:01 PM #
Is it any wonder then, that Gold had a great week? $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:00 PM #
So you put the manufacturing power of Japan, together w/long rates falling, and it looks like Global stagflation risk is rising. $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:00 PM #
So Japan GDP is at depression levels -12.7% annualized. Yet, we are seeing global sovereign debt (yields) rise. Alot. Scared yet? $$
GregorMacdonald Feb. 15 at 9:00 PM #
Welcome to MacroTwits: Let’s begin with the current landscape. To wit: global manufacturing is in a depression. Japan is the Test Case. $$
