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- faithmight Mar. 15 at 10:06 PM #
- RT @GregorMacdonald IMHO—the next risk is flight from US Treasuries into real assets. That’s is the stench I smell, in the air. $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM
- I heard somewhere Today’s dollar is worth 5 cents relative to the value of Gold $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald awesome session!! I really appreciate all of the insight in tonight’s session. Great conversations everyone!! $$
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- Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 10:03 PM #
- $GLD is way to devalue the price of physical . Thanx Gregor $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 10:02 PM #
- I’d like to thank everyone for a fast moving session tonight: Gold, Oil, Treasuries. Those are where the action will come. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 10:00 PM #
- @manch smart money in 1950-1972 owned Gold as artifacts in offshore safekeeping & won suit against USG re: ‘collectibles’ $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 10:00 PM #
- OK. We are finishing up. IMHO—the next risk is flight from US Treasuries into real assets. That’s is the stench I smell, in the air. $$
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- Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:59 PM #
- The CDN Oil plays for the next 2 years are the Oil trust funds the .UN’s $PWT.UN is the cheapest stock in N.A % wise $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:58 PM #
- @tradefast You and I will have to talk. I see you have used two models now for a Gold target. I like both. $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:58 PM #
- My biggest worry about gold is uncle ben confiscating all mine, i dunno, to pay for another round of AIG bonus? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
- @MacroMeister Feels like Japan’s deflation funded global growth, now US debt-deflation will do the same: Printing Method each time. $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
- @IntuitiveTrade no idea what you mean. we had inflation, now we have deflation but clearly that doesn’t equal hyperinflation. $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:57 PM #
- We still had some gold std back in 30s. RT @GregorMacdonald: I really encourage people to look at Gold in the 1930s. $$
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- tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald using Bretton Woods-model math (Fed bank liab divided by us gold hldgs), price of gold would be north of 9K per oz $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald It is incomprehensible to me that people think central banks can’t cheapen their currencies if they chose to. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:56 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald …unless your hypothesis about Japan desperately funds World Bank reflation that also hits yen! …then just maybe. $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
- @lawrencewildman inflation followed by defation would be hyperinflation since it’s caused by printin money by central banks that’s worst $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
- @Fullcarry education and healthcare from past few CPI’s and past 6 mo is about as ‘hyper’ as deflation can get, i suspect $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:55 PM #
- I really encourage people to look at Gold in the 1930s, and then after the Civil War, and also in Euro banking/money blow-ups. $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:54 PM #
- reply
- @Fullcarry no doubt, and obv there are structural impediments to how hyper deflation can get (ie down to 0) v. inflation. but strip out $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:54 PM #
- @TWTraders Hugh Hendry is still saying that QE and Monetization will fail at reflating. Hugh is saying the central banks cannot reflate. $$
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- Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:53 PM #
- Gold is the only honest money cause it has no liability attached to it $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:52 PM #
- @Psando Important to remember that OECD demand growth for oil this decade has been weak. Not zero. Just weak. Started weakening in ‘04 $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:52 PM #
- @lawrencewildman During periods of hyperinflation currencies lost 99.9999% of their value. In supposed deflation JPY has lost value. $$
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- gregorylent Mar. 15 at 9:51 PM #
- the good that is happening, which no one talks about, is the increased obviousness of global interdependence, we are in it together $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:51 PM #
- Faber really nailed the latest sucker rally. He was on bberg predicting it and the next day everything went rocket up $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:50 PM #
- @TWTraders One of my views is that yes, if world reflates, the Nikkei could explode higher. Seems so impossible, doesn’t it? Heh. $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:50 PM #
- @IntuitiveTrade right, but question is what is next. more deflation or some amount of inflation, and which is worse. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:49 PM #
- @lawrencewildman My concern is that a hyperdeflation turns away from the USD and concentrates on Oil and Gold. Everything down vs those 2 $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
- @Alphagroupie …which is another influence for very subnormal i.t. growth as Boomers keep working & do not free up slots for young’ns $$
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- avcacio Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
- @medicvz if you like oil - $ERX just broke out of triangle, and has now had a “pullback” to top flat line (daily) (long)
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- powitz Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
- $$ anybody have good tech analysis on $GLD or commodity from 1970? saw chart in Ferguson’s “Ascent of Money” book. to my TA inexp.-bullish.
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
- @lawrencewildman actually we had the inflation (due to commodities boom/bubble) before deflation that started with failure of the finnies $$
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- TWTraders Mar. 15 at 9:48 PM #
- @gregormacdonald If the world successfully reflates, do you see the nikkei moving heroically higher $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:47 PM #
- RT @manch I think all fiat currencies will depreciate against hard assets eg gold and oil medium term. $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:47 PM #
- @fullcarry - agreed. though we all know CPI’s deficiencies. world is now a half off sale from 6 mo ago. that’s hyperdeflation to me. $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:46 PM #
- I think all fiat currencies will depreciate against hard assets eg gold and oil medium term. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:46 PM #
- @Fullcarry certainly true; especially in mkts where chaos potential supports Gold vs fiat currency reflation kindling inflation $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:44 PM #
- We are now transferring private debt into public, and thus makes it even harder to get rid of. As far as I see US default will NOT happen $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:44 PM #
- @lawrencewildman Remember the price level isn’t purely Oil or commods. Check out core CPI. Or Japan’s exp. $$
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- fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
- $$ I don’t know what LT CG is, but have you considered the tax savings?
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- Alphagroupie Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
- Social Security with upcoming massive inflation will provide mo security for any Society $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:43 PM #
- @fortune8 preachin’ to the choir over here: full macro means in-depth tech requires fundamental ‘rationale’ (not necessarily headlines) $$
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- lawrencewildman Mar. 15 at 9:42 PM #
- @fullcarry - the past 6 months sure feel like hyper deflation. Oil and most commodities down more than 50%. That’s not hyper enough? $$
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- cselland Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
- agreed RT @GregorMacdonald: the Story of the Week came at the tail end. The Premier of China expressing open worry about Treasuries. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
- Deflation has never had a hyper version. $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 15 at 9:41 PM #
- I see food inflation being high.energy,housing staying flat or going lower.dont know what that means. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:40 PM #
- Inflation and deflation aren’t symmetrical. Even if you believe in deflation you should hedge for inflation. $$
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- jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
- @lawrencewildman Perhaps we will know in 16 days: “April is the cruelest month…” (T.S. Eliott, “The Waste Land”) $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
- @lawrencewildman deflation always followed by inflation in Keynesian world, b/c political imperative demands it $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:39 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald absolutely that’s the most scariest part (inflation after deflation;that is why some predict social unrest;I pray to God $$
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- tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:38 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald in a tug of war, timing is always uncertin - but to bet against the fed is illogical - the fed is the monetary base $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:38 PM #
- Bernanke must know financial flows to support Treasuries this decade was our own Spending coming back to us via CBs. Implication obvious $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:36 PM #
- China’s productivity slowdown will make it harder for them to support the value of the dollar. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:35 PM #
- @MacroMeister The double crushing of Deflation then Inflation is very cruel. Esp as money will be on wrong side each time. $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:34 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald I was asked the question of “Inflation or Deflation in the future?” this weekend… what is your stance? $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:33 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald …yet, the eventual combined return to growth + infl will ultimatley crush bonds & fleece the Boomers 1 more time LOL $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:33 PM #
- @IntuitiveTrade I agree that Deflation in Debt is greater (so far) than Money Printing. Tipping points are possible, however. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:32 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald exactly. USTreas bulls classic long tails b/c residual distrust of corporates during econ weakness… (more) $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:31 PM #
- In my view,2009 another bust yr for commodities including Oil,Oil could be an exception, but can’t go beyond $70; deflation will continue $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:31 PM #
- @ZMoose12 @manch I actually don’t see Gov Debt as a bubble. I see it more as a 27 yr bull market that is now over. Done. $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
- US Treasuries is safe in the sense US won’t default outright. It will just print money to pay for it. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
- @jonathanks I feel that best way to play Oil via equities is through the Canadian ETF known as XEG on the TSX. Safety from US politics $$
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- leonarbull Mar. 15 at 9:30 PM #
- RT @GregorMacdonald: North American supply is down 1 million barrels a day from 2003 to 2008: That was in face of oil from 30 to 150. $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:29 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald do you see U.S. Treasuries being the next major bubble to burst if China is for real? $$
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- jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:28 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald — I believe that last week you endorsed Canadian oil investments during Obama admin; current thoughts / picks? Tnx. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:28 PM #
- The situation with US Treasuries is eerily like Housing. “Safe as Houses” and all that. People “worried” but market holds up. And then… $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:26 PM #
- North American supply is down 1 million barrels a day from 2003 to 2008: That was in face of oil from 30 to 150. $$
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- tradefast Mar. 15 at 9:25 PM #
- Japan’s issues give Bernanke license to promote acceleration of monetary inflation without limit. He seems happy to comply. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:25 PM #
- @b1z1l1 What’s also happening is all the more expensive oil also has a decline in Energy Return (on energy invested). $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:22 PM #
- @b1z1l1 There has been some compelling work showing that Energy Return now on Nuclear is falling. I don’t know. $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 15 at 9:21 PM #
- oil is cheap on an energy conversion basis.the most efficient energy source is nuclear.but has a large stigma attached to it. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
- @sorenmacbeth What else can I trade for my Dad in his Ameritrade account and just let it ride with 5% trailing stop? $UUP
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
- RT @Fullcarry: US in the 30s feared Weimer Germany. US today fears Japan. We always tilt against the wrong windmill. $$
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- aiki14 Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald But will Libya, Iran and Argentina really cut regardless of any agreement? $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:20 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald US in the 30s feared Weimer Germany. US today fears Japan. We always tilt against the wrong windmill. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:19 PM #
- Heads up everyone: I like to keep the language clean here. This is a high class place, OK. :-) $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:19 PM #
- @ToddSullivan My view is that all OPEC needs now is the final 20% of compliance, b/c yes, they see non-OPEC is tanking. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:18 PM #
- @MacroMeister Europe cannot let go of the hyperinflationary ghosts, and we cannot let go of the opposite fears. $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:18 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald very very true. What’s your take on the supply outlook? How long will it take until alt. energy becomes king? $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:17 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald …also why Europe will be left behind (again) with a low inflation but still weaker growth on every contraction $$
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- sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
- @snoopyjc $UUP strikes me an odd ETF. USDX moves so slowly, without using leverage. Also, the weighting of the USDX is a bit silly, imo. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
- @ZMoose12 Sure, there’s TONS of oil to be drilled. Of course, you’ll need much higher prices, and its not likely to increase supply. $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald yes, China is buying copper, ion ore etc, but their inventory level is rising, not a sign for intermediate term increase $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 15 at 9:16 PM #
- Everyones talking about China selling off treasuries, won’t they just take profits in the long end and throw it in the short end??? $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald and China spend is a heck of a lot more enlightened than Europe’s parsimonious paranoia on inflation. G-20 a sham $$
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- jonathanks Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
- @fortune8 @snoopyjc FAR too much infrastructure dependent upon oil, fossil-fade will take decades. But alt-energy bullish (long term…) $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:15 PM #
- @IntuitiveTrade It’s true that OPEC spare capacity builds as non-OPEC supply falls. Price is simply too low for non-OPEC. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
- @snoopyjc USD definitely struggling; yet USD Index maj l.t. CH UP Break was .8640 & that must fail b4 any sustained sharp decline $$
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- IntuitiveTrade Mar. 15 at 9:13 PM #
- @manch Oil cannot go up much til we see the signs of recovery; thre are other factors such as geo politics,supply distruption can jump up $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
- Do people realize that the situation with Mexican oil supply is even more cruel, shocking, and grim than the previous cruel/shock/grim? $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
- Speaking of China - realize they just took a bunch of the world’s oil off the market for themselves! $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
- @fortune8 @snoopyjc agreed. 5 yrs. is too short, plenty of oil left to be drilled… If we are allowed to drill =D $$
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- aiki14 Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald And an opinion on the narrowing of contango in WTI and relation to the Dubai Contract in Backwardation $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:12 PM #
- @aiki14 The build at Cushing is real. What’s also real is crashing Mexican supply. Cushing is story of last 6 mos. MX coming! $$
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- fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:11 PM #
- @snoopyjc Exactly, and while oil will go up from here only in a matter of time. Some of you will be crying when oil is 70+ again. $$
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- sorenmacbeth Mar. 15 at 9:11 PM #
- You have to be careful about talking about USD in general. USD may be up against JPY, but down against CAD, for example. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:10 PM #
- @powitz I think China is already in process of de-hoarding the first 10% of Reserves via buying Stuff. So, action speaks volumes. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 15 at 9:10 PM #
- @fortune8 5 yrs isn’t enough time for the world to remove dependency on oil $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
- @snoopyjc I don’t know what the USD will do, when its strength is short-term structural. I agree with others that bolder QE is coming. $$
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- powitz Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald You think the Chinese Navy action + treasury talk by Chinese, is really just bully move by them? or they mean business? $$
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- fortune8 Mar. 15 at 9:09 PM #
- $$ What’s your time horizon? Do you seriously think oil still be here in 5 yrs?
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:08 PM #
- @manch Oil can go up even when economy flatlines b/c supply is being destroyed quickly in non-OPEC. $$
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- manch Mar. 15 at 9:07 PM #
- Most people assume oil can’t go up before econ recovers. What do you guys think? $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 15 at 9:04 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald Oil pricing is analogous to a dutch auction. The marginal barrel of oil determines the price for all barrels. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
- Do people realize that when OPEC is cutting it’s bearish for Oil, and that when they stop cutting, you are closer to a bottom in oil? $$
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- StockTwits Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
- Welcome Gregor and everyone to MacroTwits Hour on StockTwits
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:02 PM #
- @sorenmacbeth Of course, if one is a structural bond bull on Treasuries, then there’s NOTHING that can make one worry, right? :-) $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
- While there is no question one can analyze Chinese Treasury talk many ways, just strikes me that this is non-trivial. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
- If you ask me, the Story of the Week came at the tail end. The Premier of China expressing open worry about Treasuries. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM #
- Welcome to MacroTwits. 9pm NY Time. Remember to use either a single $ with every stock symbol, or, Double $$ at start or end of tweet $$
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- njc5 Mar. 14 at 12:02 PM
- hoping for big things for $YGE next week.
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 12:02 PM #
- @hedgefundinvest $AMZN mostly cash. As a seller & buyer on AMZN, sales have picked up last couple weeks. AMZN maybe too hi but good co
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 12:01 PM #
- @RichTucker I bought $TCK as a believer back at 9, then they bot metalg coal play, dropped big, bought much more under $3 new cost $4
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- hedgefundinvest Mar. 14 at 12:00 PM #
- ES: Seeing many #bullish tweets on $AMZN. Yes, the #stock has had a good run, but doesn’t it end somewhere? We’re in a #recession! $$
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 12:00 PM #
- Q-man… $IBB whatcha think… $$ still long of 75% took some off friday pre.. was long almost 4 days !! :)
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- RichTucker Mar. 14 at 11:59 AM #
- $ICE is one of my favs to play the ups & downs..and my LT microplay is $NNVC .just signed deal with major Pharma but did not move in price..
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- rbl656 Mar. 14 at 11:59 AM #
- @dmooney9 Mackes actually the only one I like, just because hes the only contrarian, I think you always need one $$
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:58 AM #
- reply
- @RichTucker $TCK April coal price set and we’ll know future, book/breakup value to stock price, aquistion target
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:56 AM #
- @rbl656 tell Jon Najarian to put a bug in FastMoney producers ear, replace Mackie with Q $$
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- rbl656 Mar. 14 at 11:55 AM #
- @tickerville Yea the thing is you were so dead right on you saved all your followers tons of money. You should have permanent spot. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:55 AM #
- @drkathe Most bullish scenario would be to rest while patterns that broke consolidate in a healthy manner. If we run it must have vol. $$
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:55 AM #
- @Psando I love $TCK, very long here, stopped playing ups and downs tho $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:54 AM #
- @dmooney9 There are 2 questions there. First, do you know how to identify if market falls apart? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:53 AM #
- @BullishBeauty I tried $ISRG too but took it off for cost when it didn’t go. I will play it again if it goes. Many are biased due to rum …
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:53 AM #
- @b1z1l1 I keep lists of stocks I am watching on a variety of time frames. I trade weekly, daily and intra-day, a style NOT for everyone. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:52 AM #
- @rbl656 Thank you sir. Much appreciated. In all honesty I believe it is because I was so bearish when I went on 12/30 and 12/ 31 $$
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- RichTucker Mar. 14 at 11:52 AM #
- @tickerville at what point on the $UDN chart will you make the determination that it truly is a double top?
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 14 at 11:50 AM #
- @tickerville when u look at charts do u start with the weekly first then to the daily(what frame do u start with)? $$
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:50 AM #
- @tickerville these sessions are like drinking through a firehose. Save the bookmarks, examine later $$
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- rbl656 Mar. 14 at 11:49 AM #
- reply
- @tickerville hey q man, how come they dont put you on fast money no more, you were most informative one on there $$
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- NDoubles Mar. 14 at 11:47 AM #
- @tickerville def some resistance @ Trendline, pull back 2 Recent Lows ..High Vol Up Day in Feb as well. Look 4 Short or Trigger Long over $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:46 AM #
- @oledi45 Yes. this pup is thinster. It will be hard for me to take any size if it shapes up. $$
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 11:43 AM #
- @tickerville currently long $UYG and increased position this week. Writing CC’s in IRA.Very interested to see your read on XLF today,thx! $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:42 AM #
- @Psando I think steels are very interesting. I don’t agree with $GS report but I don’t trade macro. I am waiting for charts there $$
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 11:39 AM #
- $IBB i picked up some for IRA and only sold 1/4 on Friday.. what does the Q mans eye see…………
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:39 AM #
- @snoopyjc That’s what makes a market. I don’t short breaks. I remember when someone at brunch told me at the brunch to short $AZO at 140.
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:38 AM #
- @tickerville you always saw play the picture not the name but names (eg AMZN MCD AAPL) etc must effect movement $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 14 at 11:38 AM #
- @tickerville The inverted H&S predicted the run up to 34, but then that failed. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 14 at 11:37 AM #
- @tickerville I don’t see the “cup w/handle” other than you drew it there. I still think “fail”. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:36 AM #
- Alright all, let’s talk about some ideas for the coming week and if you have anything specific you want me to cover @tickerville me. $$
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- CubbieBears Mar. 14 at 11:36 AM #
- @tickerville gun to my head…i rather be long but it looks like it needs rest based on fridays action $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:36 AM #
- As always, I strongly encourage everyone to review a chart for what it is… a picture. If you play the pictures you’ll do quite well. $$
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- Psando Mar. 14 at 11:35 AM #
- @tickerville stock looks like a break on the long side but I’d be careful with that one. Look for a pullback n see how it acts. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:35 AM #
- We’ll follow this one for a long time because if the weekly pennant breaks, this one is leadership. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:34 AM #
- I have the weekly on my radar but will look for entry on the daily. I will let the hang man resolve itself $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:34 AM #
- It’s an obscure one, so I won’t ask for guesses but it is $NVEC and the weekly has some of the best potential I have seen in a long time. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:33 AM #
- However hang man on Friday is also concerning, telling us it needs to consolidate a bit. $$
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 11:33 AM #
- @tickerville I would wait for pullback to about $25 & then see if it starts uphill again $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:33 AM #
- Note on the daily chart that volume has been picking up and accumulation was there on break. BIG BAR! $$
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- traderboss Mar. 14 at 11:32 AM #
- @tickerville Mystery Chart - Stock would need to get above 2008 level to confirm bullish move .Currently we have lower lows on Monthlies $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 14 at 11:31 AM #
- @tickerville Good morning! - on the chart - looks like it will be another “failed breakout” like in ‘08 - volume very low now. $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 14 at 11:29 AM #
- @tickerville I look to go short no volume at trendline resistance look for a pullback to the 50 if it breaks the line go long $$
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 11:27 AM #
- @tickerville I like that latest uptrend started before last week’s market upswing $$
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- qmar Mar. 14 at 11:26 AM #
- @tickerville I am a great fan :) I wanted some analysis on $RIG, I got into May 65 Calls… let me kno what you think… TIA
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 11:25 AM #
- $$ First question what up w/ volume… Has me going for another cup of JAVA///
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- upsidetrader Mar. 14 at 11:21 AM #
- @tickerville lol Spartans are resting big Quint, they r putting to bed the March $spx next week so I think we have a bullish week-shrt cov?
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:21 AM #
- I chuckled over last week. It was $EEM. All week I got e-mails telling me how terrible emerging mkt would be. I said ‘pretend it’s a fin’ $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:20 AM #
- OK, let’s go to Mystery Chart. You know how the game works. I put up a chart, we discuss WITHOUT knowing what it is. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:19 AM #
- Don’t ever question the ticks, simply respect them. $BIDU was telling us all we needed to know about China. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:19 AM #
- Tape will always tell you all you need to know. $CTRP popped up on my stock search, I entered, stock flew Later news broke of Tiger Fund $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:18 AM #
- @drkathe I try hard to avoid news like the plague. I work in silence J.L. style $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:17 AM #
- The key is that bulls have the ball. Let them fumble before pressing bear side. Why are so many interested in calling top of this move? $$
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 11:17 AM #
- @tickerville What news may throw off the financials this week? Or, which news do you expect to increase them? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:16 AM #
- @dmooney9 Yes. Volume very important however if we were to continue to advance WITH volume that would be very bullish. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:16 AM #
- @drkathe could be, but my line is wednesday’s low. $7.21 Now, I played it this week but will not take much overnight risk here $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:15 AM #
- The components are obviously mucho important. $GS, $MS, $WFC and $BAC are always on my screen. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:14 AM #
- @dmooney9 It’s looking tired. I would prefer a rest here. The longer it goes without a breather the more skeptical I’ll become. $$
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- dmooney9 Mar. 14 at 11:13 AM #
- @dmooney9 I think 3 and 4 are 8.50 and 10 which is how I read it from your training $XLF
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:13 AM #
- The key here on any pullback is NOT to give up #1 on a close. If this happens, we go to bunker & long live @upsidetrader and his Spartans $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:12 AM #
- reply
- Ideally, bulls would love to see a consolidation at or above line #2, setting up for an attack on #3 and ultimately #4. $$
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 11:11 AM #
- @tickerville gosh, I like my bulls to be on top of 50 and 200 dma’s, Will wait for $CREE to consolidate for a breakout. $
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:12 AM #
- Ideally, bulls would love to see a consolidation at or above line #2, setting up for an attack on #3 and ultimately #4. $$
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 11:11 AM #
- @tickerville gosh, I like my bulls to be on top of 50 and 200 dma’s, Will wait for $CREE to consolidate for a breakout. $$
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- fusion141 Mar. 14 at 11:11 AM #
- $FAZ volatility is incredible, employing a long straddle on March 40s may prove extremely profitable.
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:11 AM #
- It already broke the steep trendline as noted by #1 as well a the lateral line #2. A pullback to kiss #1 would be fine but steep. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:10 AM #
- Now, what I love about the $XLF is the multiple areas of entry and stop you have. We all have a proper guide here $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:06 AM #
- @drkathe No clue, this is exactly what we spoke of to start. I too have been snagged in semis. Let’s pretend they r something else? $$
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 11:03 AM #
- @tickerville I’ve gotten bashed on semis more than once over the years. How long do you think rally would last? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:03 AM #
- @JST4FSH In all honesty I didn’t have enough on the break. It was easier to cut and remount than to hold. May have been a mistake. $$
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 11:03 AM #
- $$ .. Best part of playing a break……. u have a clear stop…. and a a scalp short or long.. lol
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:01 AM #
- The ETF’s have become a beautiful way to play an entire move without subjecting yourself to indv stock risk ala $STLD which I was ganked $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 11:01 AM #
- This is a perfect example of what @stevenplace was discussing. Early in the week i saw semis setting up all over. I chose to play $USD
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 10:59 AM #
- @tickerville - $MRVL can u say why u sold.. book em or see something.. I sold most of $IRA 2 book.. still see up.. but we r in bear mrkt
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 10:57 AM #
- @tickerville $SOHU has a very nice ascending triangle on the daily. Interesting volume on that doji Friday…says it will consol mo. $$
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- fortune8 Mar. 14 at 10:56 AM #
- @tickerville where can one find definition of sector versus industries as one is more general and other is specific. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:55 AM #
- Brush off that semi list boys and girls. Let’s run through some of those pups. Now traditionally Semis can die quickly so STOPs $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:54 AM #
- No question fins led the dance $XLF 32.52% but $SMH 13.96 and some of the best charts out there. $$
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- Gz9 Mar. 14 at 10:53 AM #
- 2nd week at brunch and I can say I’m benefiting $$
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 10:52 AM #
- $IWM tick.. the croud is doing some buying.. as u said.. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:50 AM #
- Can anyone name the stealth sector that has rallied like crazy right behind the fins?? $
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:49 AM #
- Man I love @StockTwits brunch! I am not sure who benefits more, me or all of you! This is awesome $$
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 10:46 AM #
- @tickerville $AMZN stop = 63.50 but only way it would get there would be an ugly morning gap down. this is a good bullish play.$$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:45 AM #
- @drkathe Not advocating a buy. I am already long, booked partial profit and trailed stop. $$
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- drkathe Mar. 14 at 10:44 AM #
- reply
- $AMZN call option price still to high to buy. need more pullback.
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:41 AM #
- @stevenplace Ah. No I would not. I would then focus on an ETF. I keep a position limit to avoid running a mini-mutual fund. LOL $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:41 AM #
- @b1z1l1 I remounted $GLD this week. Hoping to buy more on pullback. If $DGP is your fancy excellent. I think $GLD will be whippy $$
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- stevenplace Mar. 14 at 10:40 AM #
- @tickerville If stocks X, Y, and Z are all exhibiting same price pattern would you take on full pos size on each? $$
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- JST4FSH Mar. 14 at 10:34 AM #
- $$ Tick im overtradg the Fins as a DT thats where the action is. Next wk wil get bck to othrs. can u talk about being to focused on a sec
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:34 AM #
- reply
- We have to study the character of any pullbacks. Look at $AMZN on Friday. That is healthy consolidation. I’ll look to add. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:33 AM #
- reply
- Now, back to market. We had an excellent run and cut up the bears pretty good. Many charts are short term extended. We must not chase. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 14 at 10:31 AM #
- @ericbolling good comment on B&B today on further to run; bears are too quick to look for I.T. reactions tops after recent success. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:29 AM #
- @carzz A little too macro for me but I think much of $FCX move due to Gold component. Copper broke then retreated. I’ll get to steels $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 14 at 10:29 AM #
- @tickerville …and that shud be bookmarked by all active traders… once you’ve done the work/risk, make sure you get paid something $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:27 AM #
- @jmclarty You know, I have never studied this. My guess is that it correlates quite a bit with the current volatility. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:26 AM #
- Last weeks brunch @BuyOnTheDip $SRS reversal on Friday was incredible I will be looking for follow through here Hope you played it brother
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:24 AM #
- @tablehead We cannot control market, but we can control risk. Trading is ALL about that one simple thing. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:21 AM #
- @Rob555 I think volume is wreaking havoc with traders. I am playing price action with clear stops evaluating volume on a weekly basis. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:20 AM #
- 3.) Take trade 4.) Take half off at 1x Risk 5.) Trail stop on remaining $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:20 AM #
- Every trade I approach the same way. 1.) Where is stop. 2.) How many shares (Based on a $2k loss: THIS is diff for everyone) $$
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- Rob555 Mar. 14 at 10:20 AM #
- @tickerville For $AMZN and $FCX it looks like there is a build up of volume before it pops, both buy and sell. Do you find this typical?
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:19 AM #
- If you carry emotion in your trading, it is flawed. The market has NO emotion, so why should you? It’s all probabilities. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:18 AM #
- reply
- Years ago, I would have seen $FCX set up again, remembered the emotional pain and passed on the stock. WHY??
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:17 AM #
- I entered $FCX a few months ago. Stopped for loss. Tried again a few weeks after that. Stopped. Again a few weeks ago. BAAM! $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:17 AM #
- @BullishBeauty The way to prevent it is to analyze it. Know yourself. Are you entering too early OR are you becoming biased after stopped $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:14 AM
- @tablehead Thank you for the honesty, love it! I suggest evaluating that closely and figuring out if you become biased. $$
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- BullishBeauty Mar. 14 at 10:14 AM #
- @tickerville This happened to me multiple times, so the way to prevent? Greater chart understanding? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:13 AM #
- That is why I am adamant about waiting for a move to happen. WHY anticipate…. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:13 AM #
- @MacroMeister Yes, I like to say the market will move with as few people on board. Simple as that. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:12 AM #
- How often have you gotten stopped out, only to see your trade work without you. Ever wondered why?? Giddy up peeps! $$
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- tablehead Mar. 14 at 10:11 AM #
- @tickerville new peep here..yes I am always early only to get stopped out and see it run away $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:11 AM #
- @dakapbj When I first started trading I would try a trade and if it didn’t work, I would pass on it when it set up again. I have learned $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 14 at 10:10 AM #
- @tickerville it’s the old saw on Contrarian view: the market will screw as many people as possile b4 the real move begins LOL $$
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- dakapbj Mar. 14 at 10:09 AM #
- @tickerville can u explain what 3 tries means? buy/sell/buy? or 3 separate buy/sells? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:08 AM #
- Ultimately some of the biggest moves come after a stock whips traders around and around. The 3rd 4th or 5th mouse gets the cheeeeeese $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:07 AM #
- So often after a trader gets stung once by a stock, they will not re-enter and try again. Pretend it is a different stock if you must $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:07 AM #
- What I think is so important to note with $FCX is it took me 3 times to get this one right. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:05 AM #
- As always, if you want a particular chart marked up, @tickerville me and I’ll make it happen! $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:04 AM #
- I will be studying character of ALL pullbacks in addition to watching closely names we’ll discuss today. Always keep r/r in your favor $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:03 AM #
- Now…. let’s say you didn’t catch it. Let’s say you sat idle waiting. DO NOT let anxiety get to you. Play your game not an emotional one $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:02 AM #
- I would have left about half my gains on the table this week, or not participated at all had I not let the charts speak. $
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:01 AM #
- I think the biggest thing we have to take away from last week is just how important it is to block out the darn noise! $$
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 10:00 AM #
- Gotta love bear market rallies….. S&P 500 10.71% and only looks like a blip on the big picture radar. I am hoping you caught some $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 14 at 10:00 AM #
- $$ @tickerville …back to last week’s psych view, if DJIA can improve to 8000+/- does it affect your individual stock analysis?
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 9:59 AM #
- How’s everyone doing this morning?? I have to be careful not to run out of Tweet posts…..geesh. $$
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- StockTwits Mar. 14 at 9:58 AM #
- RT: @higgstrader Reading Reminiscencs of a Stock Operatr for 8th time. Then markt was open Sat. mornings. At least we have Stocktwits Brunch
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- tickerville Mar. 14 at 9:58 AM #
- Good morning traders! Rise and shine. Let’s get it on…..@StockTwits brunch style. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:04 PM #
- reply
- As we finish up. I note that GASOIL is strong again. GASOIL gives a great short-term pulse on real world demand. $$
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- StockTwits Mar. 08 at 10:03 PM #
- reply
- thx all for joining the MacroTwits hour with @gregormacdonald. looks like gregor may stay for a lil overtime. transcrip will be avail tom.
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:02 PM #
- reply
- @sawickipedia I take a Whole Enchillada approach—oops, wholistic—Politics, Nationalism, Geology, Scarcity Rent, Ignorance, Costs = Oil $$
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- Shenzen01 Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- Strong capital, low debt, China internal growth and infrastructure spending self-sustaining, how much you think rely on export, not much. $$
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- BMR789 Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- @b1z1l1 which is the marginal cost of oil prodn. What else is needed to get the ND ‘oil’, water, gas, staffing - are they available?? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:04 PM #
- reply
- As we finish up. I note that GASOIL is strong again. GASOIL gives a great short-term pulse on real world demand. $$
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- StockTwits Mar. 08 at 10:03 PM #
- reply
- thx all for joining the MacroTwits hour with @gregormacdonald. looks like gregor may stay for a lil overtime. transcrip will be avail tom.
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:02 PM #
- reply
- @sawickipedia I take a Whole Enchillada approach—oops, wholistic—Politics, Nationalism, Geology, Scarcity Rent, Ignorance, Costs = Oil $$
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- Shenzen01 Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- Strong capital, low debt, China internal growth and infrastructure spending self-sustaining, how much you think rely on export, not much. $$
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- BMR789 Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- @b1z1l1 which is the marginal cost of oil prodn. What else is needed to get the ND ‘oil’, water, gas, staffing - are they available?? $$
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- nancefinance Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- @mojakus last month a major Chinese investor threatened to slow bond buys unless US did “something.” no wonder US fears breakdown $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:01 PM #
- reply
- @pdenlinger I just can’t see how all the new supply of Sovereign Debt gets taken up unless BOJ, IMF and CB’s monetize it. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 10:00 PM #
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- @donahchoo When Oil goes below 80, future Tar Sands projects on hold. When oil below 35.00. current production at risk. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:58 PM #
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- @mojakus It’s my understanding Euro corps rushing to get ahead of huge Euroland Sovereign Supply (to pay for StimPacks). $$
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- thurgy Mar. 08 at 9:58 PM #
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- @mojakus but will those swap lines end up blowing up on us, that is the real question. $$
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- AriCostello Mar. 08 at 9:57 PM #
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- @b1z1l1 Bakkan has low recovery rates, and generally small pools. No magic bullets on supply end $$
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- mojakus Mar. 08 at 9:57 PM #
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- The continued existence of Fed FX swap lines to other CBs speaks volumes about the gov’s fear of a breakdown in the $UST demand schedule $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:56 PM #
- reply
- We’ll be finishing up in about 5 minutes. I can see that despite oil, most eyes are on SPX, MTM meeting, and politics. $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 08 at 9:55 PM #
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- @thurgy stress test is a smoke screen for treasury to line up private sector buyers, regulators already have the numbers they need $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:55 PM #
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- Have people noticed that the currency complex keeps trying to become more favorable to equities, but to no avail? $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 08 at 9:54 PM #
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- @BMR789 it comes down to the price at wich it is profitable.North dakota has a huge oil deposit.to exspensive to get it out $$
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- AriCostello Mar. 08 at 9:54 PM #
- reply
- But the equal volume of pennies will take much longer (more money) to find $$
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- thurgy Mar. 08 at 9:53 PM #
- reply
- $$ “Unemployment has already reached the average rate the White House projected for the whole year.”
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 08 at 9:52 PM #
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- Question is whether economy is dead now with dems in control? looks like it. $$
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- BMR789 Mar. 08 at 9:51 PM #
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- @b1z1l1 It’s not the size of the reserve - it’s the size of the outlet pipe that matters most. Also,more concern about food than mobility $$
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- economy_ms Mar. 08 at 9:50 PM #
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- @b1z1l1 no huge (over 1m bl a day) new oil field since the 60’s. To me a play is $RJN for 6-12 months no idea about a day -week trade $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:49 PM #
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- @pdenlinger Well, everything is deflating against the USD and Gold. And has been since July 08. My question is: Can USD/USTs carry load? $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 08 at 9:47 PM #
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- b1z1l1jim stack nailed it when oil was at 100 plus calling it a bubble.Hehad a article from the 80’s about how there was no more oil left $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:44 PM #
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- @IntuitiveTrade My view about a collapse of currencies against oil is an outlier, dislocation risk. Regular Supply/Demand makes 50 easy $$
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- amuhr Mar. 08 at 9:42 PM #
- reply
- interesting to note that while BBB yields has stabilized lately, AAA yields have risen- check out the graph: http://bit.ly/LmHI9 $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:41 PM #
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- @bluewaterpro I see the Ad-hocracy of current Admin on Bank plan as death by 1000 cuts. Geithner said “no incrementalism” but reneged. $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 08 at 9:39 PM #
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- Only Saudi and Abu Dhabi can produce for less than $35, Russia, Venezuela, Canada, US and Mexico higher $$
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- economy_ms Mar. 08 at 9:38 PM #
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- @b1z1l1 yes OPEC is trying - their target is on the mid/high 70’s$ per barrel but I see it even higher in the long run $$ supply/demand $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:38 PM #
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- @sawickipedia Were you aware that if not for Russia, non-OPEC supply would have fallen by 2 Mb/day as price rose from 30-150? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:36 PM #
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- @fleckman Actually you are raising very good points about hidden costs in non-OPEC production. Your perspective is fresh. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:35 PM #
- @aiki14 The negative carry of USTs is a concern for the bears. $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 08 at 9:34 PM #
- wouldnt it be in the best interest of OPEC if they stabilize prices.not to high not to low $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 08 at 9:34 PM #
- @traderdoug $UNG problem is huge increase in supply coupled with reduced demand. No quick fix, likely little bump along with overall market
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:33 PM #
- USTs could be in serious trouble if there is even a hint of that. $$
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- amuhr Mar. 08 at 9:32 PM #
- @Fullcarry that might signal a move out of USTs? at least when the lending ramps up? $$
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- b1z1l1 Mar. 08 at 9:30 PM #
- i just wonder if $SU can be profitable if oil is around 40 and stays there. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:30 PM #
- @dvolatility I wrote in my January newsletter that there was risk Nikkei could sky on a JPY crash. (I don’t bet on this. Just sayin’) $$
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- powitz Mar. 08 at 9:30 PM #
- $$ Anybody take North Korea’s threats today as legitimate?
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:28 PM #
- @amuhr I should get in the habit of calling them USTs. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:28 PM #
- Sovereign bonds are competing for same capital everything else is competing for. They almost sag w/everything on parched liquidity days. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:27 PM #
- @amuhr I really don’t know. I am following it very closely. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:27 PM #
- @dvolatility think japan will be allowed to devalue by usa to offset grumpy china nikkei wont rally until spx does but will find base $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 08 at 9:27 PM #
- funny that it takes a 10+% move in oil for ppl to take notice. If stocktwits coverage is any indication, this move up is getting tired. $$
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- aiki14 Mar. 08 at 9:26 PM #
- $TLT $TBT up, equities down, somebody is moving out of treasuries, China using cash for domestic stimulus… HMMMM
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:26 PM #
- @mikestiller nonsense was in supposdily treas bear market 80 to 88 - kaufman wojnilower fired over “supply” of us treas seinorage $$
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- PawsPuppyPower Mar. 08 at 9:26 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald as I read your stuff, $uso suffers from always buying “front” month, even 3 month out no good, just buy futures, 2010, etc.
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- dvolatility Mar. 08 at 9:26 PM #
- if that makes any sense at all $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 08 at 9:25 PM #
- @gregormacdonald, what do you think of Nikkei:Yen relationship here. (Yen Devaluation):(Non-Safe Haven:Export Demand) lol $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 08 at 9:25 PM #
- XTO’s chart is screaming inverse Head-And-Shoulders pattern… Keep an eye out! $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:25 PM #
- @mattlehrer That’s right. The higher prices caused non-OPEC to bring on lots of new, high-cost supply as legacy low cost supply declined. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:24 PM #
- there is always a correct/real price for oil correct/real price for exporters currency - once away from that “phoney money” is provided $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 08 at 9:24 PM #
- @GMRobertson hasnt worked over last 25 years bc we have been in a tsys bull mkt. Supply only matters when in a bear mkt. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:23 PM #
- Bonds are getting absorbed by the leveraged/FCB crowd. No sign of that changing yet. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:23 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald not if that higher proce didnt work took place in the “errors ad omission” account same with trade surplus $ savings $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:23 PM #
- @fleckman Would it be your view that state run OPEC oil producers run with less economic constraint than non-OPEC producers? $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 08 at 9:22 PM #
- @alphatrends I’m glad $FCX chart is looking good - I’m long in the morning, with a Married Put just in case! :-)
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:22 PM
- @mikestiller save yourself some grief deman supply concerns with us treas has neve worked it is solely rick premia $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 08 at 9:21 PM #
- bonds — any thoughts here with 60 bil in supply coming online this week? $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:18 PM #
- @fleckman Apart from Russia, non-OPEC is the free world, free-market oil, driven by profit margins and the best engineering. $$
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- powitz Mar. 08 at 9:18 PM #
- $$ For as much as the gov’t is “trying to” devalue the dollar, it doesn’t seem to be happening..
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- Twigins Mar. 08 at 9:18 PM #
- $GTE I own GTE, head honcho cut his teeth at EnCana, “clean” oil S. America, priced right, no debt , will be the next Petrobas
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:17 PM #
- @mikestiller I am firmly in the dollar deval camp. I expect pos corr between Gold and Equities. $DXY I am confused. $$
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- Twigins Mar. 08 at 9:18 PM #
- $GTE I own GTE, head honcho cut his teeth at EnCana, “clean” oil S. America, priced right, no debt , will be the next Petrobas
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:17 PM #
- @mikestiller I am firmly in the dollar deval camp. I expect pos corr between Gold and Equities. $DXY I am confused. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 08 at 9:16 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald re: I am always invested in the oil complex - Nice to hear, I’m with you at these (soon to be) historic low levels $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:16 PM #
- @b1z1l1 FYI here at MacroTwits I generally do not comment on individual names. Too much complexity. That said: Canada = Safety. $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 08 at 9:15 PM #
- @Fullcarry uniformed ppl think dollar,gold and equity weakness is the relationship. I tend to think gold is going thru structural change $$
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- jmclarty Mar. 08 at 9:15 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald Everyone? U can say that again. At a party, Friday night, I was explaining to 4 first time “investors” how $DXO works.
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:14 PM
- Famous Greg Mankiw teaches a well loved Econ 101 course at Harvard. How do you think Greg handles Malthus. And oil supply? $$
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- mrmarket Mar. 08 at 9:14 PM #
- $$ Upside,the only thing that might stop the slide in financials this week is if the media really hypes this mark to market talk by congress
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- powitz Mar. 08 at 9:14 PM
- Anybody have a take on $DF? It doesn’t seem like food prices have come down as much as other commodities. Anybody know why that is? thanks.
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:13 PM #
- Howcome Oil going from 30 to 150 over 6 years brought on not a single net gain in non-OPEC supply. $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:12 PM #
- @mikestiller As I think you suggested last week the US traders are net not long Gold. I don’t know whent hat changes. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:12 PM
- anyone have view as to significance of the oil contango dropping 50% first break down since winter 08 $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:11 PM #
- @powitz @b1z1l1 I would favor Producers here instead of Services. non-OPEC is emotionally battered. No. New. Oil. Until after 80+ $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 08 at 9:11 PM #
- @Fullcarry it is interesting that all the important gold trades are overseas in russia, eurozone, etc. Unless DXY weakness starts now?? $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:10 PM #
- whats the new brazilian fields break even crude price anyone know? $$
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- Psando Mar. 08 at 9:10 PM
- @ari5000 its unjustified when every time an analyst downgrades $$aapl and they continue to outperform and beat their numbers.
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- economy_ms Mar. 08 at 9:09 PM #
- Crude Oil +2.28%, Nikkei +0.35% new week new market http://is.gd/msrU commodity producers are doing well today! watch copper $$ ETN $RJI
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:08 PM #
- wonder if mexico narco civil war has more basis in this oil cash flow spigot being shut down? $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:07 PM #
- @mikestiller Pound needs to substantially devalue. I see no alternative. The question is why the market is resisting. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:07 PM #
- yes understand mexico close ot being closed down if they cant re-service and move to deep water $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:06 PM #
- cdn “made in cdn”pricing wont last likely ft mcmurry mothball be about 4th time last 30 years - it is terrible dirty extract anyway $$
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- MduGard Mar. 08 at 9:06 PM #
- sure we all have shorting fatigue but that’s no reason to go bullish on oil $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:05 PM #
- @GMRobertson Cantarel’s crash is so dramatic that Ku-Maloob-Zap is now the top field in MX. I mean it is just shocking. $$
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- ZMoose12 Mar. 08 at 9:05 PM #
- I am a current shareholder of USO… DXO is the real death trap! $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:05 PM #
- @Fullcarry Yes there is a faint whiff of the old correlation(s) with Oil firm at tail end of week, with USD tail off. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:04 PM #
- complete mexico program was based on hedge funds asset based lending as mexico does not allow FDI in oil - thats all shelved $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:03 PM #
- @llboyd I think contango will put up a small fight. I don’t expect it to go away quickly. But it wants to. Another sign: NYMEX vs Brent. $$
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- GMRobertson Mar. 08 at 9:03 PM #
- i know mexico was on massive cap ex campaign to move offshore drilling to some deep water and fix service of shallow water wells $$
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- Fullcarry Mar. 08 at 9:03 PM #
- @GregorMacdonald Last week saw some recent correlations reversing. Oil, Euro & Gold rallied together. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:01 PM #
- Everyone is thinking about Oil. And why not. non-OPEC supply in places like Mexico is crashing. MX exports are down 18% in 08 vs 07. $$
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- GregorMacdonald Mar. 08 at 9:00 PM #
- Welcome to MacroTwits: 2100 hours/9PM NY Time. APR NYMEX is at 46.56 up + 1.04. SPX Futures up + .3.00. Gold and Bonds flattish. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 12:14 PM #
- @tickerville Interesting - $EEM - I just sold my Put on it yesterday, so I’m allowing it to break out now!! :-)
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:14 PM #
- I don’t care what their name is or how many TV shows they go on. Block out the noise and follow the tape. It won’t steer you wrong $$
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- kykimnyc Mar. 07 at 12:12 PM #
- @tickerville seems like there will be resistance around 25 or so. buy if it gets above that $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:11 PM #
- Ironically, some will still have a bias and not remain open to change. These will be those that fight the trend to the upside. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:11 PM #
- The point always with mystery chart is to determine your course of action without a bias. $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 07 at 12:09 PM #
- wondering if oil moves higher on demand/supply support would it forcefully break down the $USD, all other USD reactions aside.. $$
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- TYtrader Mar. 07 at 12:09 PM #
- $DXO don rush. as long as we’re in recession oil may not rise
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- carzz Mar. 07 at 12:07 PM #
- @tickerville A break above downtrend line about 22.5 long ..otherwise not playing $$
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- faustroll Mar. 07 at 12:06 PM #
- @tickerville i.e re: the oil and commodity question. $DXO looks like it broke its trendline to the upside. will wait to see if confirmed
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:06 PM #
- Now, when I see a weekly chart like this, it gets my attention. I then review the daily. $$
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- Vtdave2011 Mar. 07 at 12:05 PM #
- $nflx I got in at $30 just before earnings came out. Nice move after that! THe chart looked great. Nice cup and handle with the breakout.
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:05 PM #
- @nymeca Yes, this is a good read. It clearly could still go either way,but what is interesting to me is that it hasn’t yet re-tested lows $$
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- kykimnyc Mar. 07 at 12:04 PM #
- @tickerville first thought is that it needs to fill the gap. but not sure in this down market $$
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- Finroe Mar. 07 at 12:04 PM #
- @tickerville saw your $DXO chart, i think people are realizing how cheap oil is regardless of economy, oil stocks held up best
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:04 PM #
- @snoopyjc You trade with a bias. You will never be successful with a bias. $$
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- jsfalvo Mar. 07 at 12:04 PM #
- @tickerville only if takes out Dec high since I do not know what it is and I am just looking at that chart $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 12:04 PM #
- @tickerville I’ll like it if it ever gets above the 50-day, but it’s got a long way to go to get there. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 12:01 PM #
- @tickerville retest of the lows in this down market (mystery chart) $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 12:00 PM #
- The question is, considering you have no idea what this chart is, what are your thoughts on it? $$
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- TYtrader Mar. 07 at 11:59 AM #
- $NFLX looks a good company for long term investors
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- zortrades Mar. 07 at 11:57 AM #
- @tickerville the $vix has support at the 160day ma resistance at the 80day ma you have a descending trendline connecting the oct nov high $$
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- StockTwits Mar. 07 at 11:56 AM #
- thank you to the man @Tickerville Already looking forward to next weeks charts and latte.
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- mikestiller Mar. 07 at 11:55 AM #
- @GregorMacdonald looking at crude oil COT, no players are there. Uninvolved is a better way to describe it on both sides. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:55 AM #
- @tickerville must dash; phenomenal Quint… from the broad right down to the narrow, as always $$
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- mikestiller Mar. 07 at 11:54 AM #
- @dvolatility agree. CRB has fed off of global fx non-Yen/non-USD weakness. IMO, $DXY weakness will create parabolic moves in commodities. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:53 AM #
- @snoopyjc that’s the real ticket, and allows actual involvement is also a teacher… yet, Zen of your headspace absolute requirement $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 07 at 11:52 AM #
- @snoopyjc nice break out there. re $FCX, yeah I’m also watching $BHP needs to make a decision on where it wants to go, just below 50 day.
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:52 AM #
- I’ll go over a bit today because I was late. What else should we discuss this morning? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:51 AM #
- @zortrades LOL we don’t have enough time for my thoughts about the vix. Let’s just say I don’t think it needs to go to 80 again $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:50 AM #
- @tickerville second that; the reads will help more than tech insight; who do you want to be as a trader?! within life situaiton? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:46 AM #
- @CubbieBears It just won’t quit. One of the few technically healthy longs out there. I am not in it yet. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:46 AM #
- @CubbieBears It just won’t quit. One of the few technically healthy longs out there. I am not in it yet. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:46 AM #
- @snoopyjc LOL… same song “…a bad caser of luvin’ you” …fall out of love w/indicators & love the price triggers (risk mgmt too) $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 07 at 11:46 AM #
- $USD needs to break down here too for any of this to work, imo. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:45 AM #
- @zortrades I have a trend line drawn on $S connecting 11/4 top with 2/26. A break there would have me long. $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 07 at 11:44 AM #
- what’s interesting is $COPPER comex has been in an uptrend since beginning of the year. 125 to 168.. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:44 AM #
- @snoopyjc No clue. I think you need to start establishing a clear strategy. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:43 AM #
- @nymeca I raised my stop to the break out point. If I were to be stopped out of $FCX, I would be out. $$
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- dvolatility Mar. 07 at 11:42 AM #
- If China stimulus works and IF commodities catch a bid I’ll watch Yen:Nikkei inverse relationship… $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:42 AM #
- @Psando I played $FLR this week off 10 min chart. Nothing more than a scalp until it sets up. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:39 AM #
- @snoopyjc in fact… EXACTLY 110% accurate. with due respect, you are afllicted w/indicator-itis. normal phase; you’ll get past it $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 11:38 AM #
- @tickerville 3/4/09 “We are setting a buy stop to get us long 125 shares on the breakout if the stock trades as high as $65.20 today” $AMZN
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:35 AM #
- One area I am particularly interested in is China. There is much noise surrounding this group, but technicals becoming interesting $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:33 AM #
- @hugo48 Weekly still dangerous but sucker keeps holding on. If it breaks, I’ll be there. $$
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- JasonRaznick Mar. 07 at 11:32 AM #
- @tradefast yes, but cramer probably still owns another 3k shares of $wfc. Ok, I may take twitter break & go have my birthday lunch!
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:32 AM #
- @BuyOnTheDip No comment on empty buildings but the $SRS reversal on Friday was incredible. I will be looking for follow through here down $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:31 AM #
- @snoopyjc No disrespect but it sounds like you’re following too much noise. Play the chart $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:31 AM #
- @snoopyjc that said, DJIA might not get all the way to 6100 as 6236 is important DEC ‘96 low (orig ‘irrational exuberance’ reaction LOL $$
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- SGajewski Mar. 07 at 11:29 AM #
- $$ Current watch lists for Monday?
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:29 AM #
- @snoopyjc …while it takes a bit of sustained focus, that DJIA 6100 oscillator support issue is one of “chance favors prepared mind” $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:27 AM #
- What I like most about $FCX, is that the day after it broke (Thursday) it had a constructive pullback that allowed for entry. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:25 AM #
- One of the things I have learned is to never give up on a stock regardless of how many attempts you make. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:23 AM #
- So, considering my only short is $GOOG, let’s prepare ourselves in the event we do bounce. $$
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- BuyOnTheDip Mar. 07 at 11:23 AM #
- $KMB was my “tell” on Friday. I use it like the VIX. if $KMB moves up strong, you know the market will too.
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:21 AM #
- One of my favorite shorts $GILD, we’ve been stalking for months, broke hard the last couple weeks. I want to re-enter here chart coming $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:18 AM #
- @finlwiz They’re oversold and is why I covered. I could see bounce too, but why strap a time frame to it? $$
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- AppleInvestor Mar. 07 at 11:18 AM #
- @wind4me Investors should prioritize by market, then sector, then lastly by individual issue. If the sector doesn’t make the cut, then… $$
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- ppearlman Mar. 07 at 11:18 AM #
- @snoopyjc there are many different ways to make money in the markets snoops for sure $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 11:17 AM #
- @tickerville So I need a strategy I can implement with stops, conditional orders, in other words, things I can set in advance $$
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- hugo48 Mar. 07 at 11:16 AM #
- @BuyOnTheDip Have to go back to 2/20 on 30 min chart to find positive volume spike like last 1/2 hr Fri. $XOM$$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:16 AM #
- @snoopyjc good point; that’s why ‘big’ levels w/tight stops work 4 part-timers; delusion is that market will be ready when u drop in $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 07 at 11:16 AM #
- market showing consistent pattern fade at 10am $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:16 AM #
- @snoopyjc yes, that is a challenge. My suggestion is to do the work, ahead of the trade. Once the trade is on, there is no work involved. $$
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- BuyOnTheDip Mar. 07 at 11:14 AM #
- @tickerville “they” pump $XOM to move the entire market. “if” the market and oil rally, $XOM calls are an easy way to get long “the market”
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 11:12 AM #
- @tickerville That’s why I’m doing Collars in my own account - just need to roll’em every once in a while. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 11:12 AM #
- @tickerville That’s why I am following you guys! And have learned alot in the past 2 months. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:11 AM #
- @BuyOnTheDip Ah yes, let’s start with mother mobil, my largest short until a week ago. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:10 AM #
- @snoopyjc I manage millions of dollars for many accounts. ‘A lot of work’ is all part of the game. $$
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- jeff_91711 Mar. 07 at 11:10 AM #
- $$ could not listening to share size/riskReward is maybe a psychological problem.
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 11:08 AM #
- @jsfalvo agreed, Friday was a Huge test on psychology $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 11:08 AM #
- @bluewaterpro Sounds good, but I also manage accounts for my Dad, StepMom, and Sister, so it’s a lot of work to move stops manually! $$
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- jsfalvo Mar. 07 at 11:07 AM #
- @tickerville cool but we need to keep focusing on psychology every week it is the most important aspect of what we do $$
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- bluewaterpro Mar. 07 at 11:06 AM #
- Trailing stops are a real problem in this choppy market, I now move them up manually $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 11:06 AM #
- @tickerville “that most will pay no attention to it.” Did I miss something there? $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:06 AM #
- @snoopyjc No, but how about I write one for Minyanville next week. That is an excellent idea. Thank you $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 11:06 AM
- @tickerville Base position size on the amount of risk in trade - got it. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:06 AM #
- @tickerville look at all the commods players who got ground out below APR GOLD serial supports on the way to 900 real support $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:05 AM #
- OK, with an hour to go, let’s talk some charts. We’ll hash out more psychology next time. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:04 AM #
- @avcacio Great, than please summarize what I just said so I know you got it. $$
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- jsfalvo Mar. 07 at 11:04 AM #
- @carzz that why I would wait to a breakout of the daily 50sma then I would have that as my stop on $DXO but now it could be a double top
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:04 AM #
- @MacroMeister I am moving to a complete non-arbitrary selling strategy. It has taken me years to figure it out. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 11:03 AM #
- @tickerville re: won’t pay attention - I disagree, as StockTwits MAKES you more responsible - having to show others what your doing $$
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- Prospectus Mar. 07 at 11:03 AM #
- @tickerville $RIG is all about oil services, and no oil company should be cap expanding right now. I’d stay away. My 0.02 (worth it too) $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:03 AM #
- @bluewaterpro I don’t always agree with that. I only take trades that have appropriate risk /reward ratio. $$
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- carzz Mar. 07 at 11:02 AM #
- @jsfalvo curious this trade $dxo appears to be at resistance and sym triangle from FEB to me could go either way
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:01 AM #
- @finlwiz You are extrapolating that the energy stocks may follow the commodity. Why not wait for a prudent set up? $$
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- jsfalvo Mar. 07 at 11:01 AM #
- @hugo48 $RIG great point below the daily 50sma and weekly 20sma not yet great point about forget the symbol look at the chart
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 11:01 AM #
- @tickerville and being patient with winners is soo hard to do in ‘chop’; which is why a sense of maj incex influence can help $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:00 AM #
- This is probably the most important thing we have ever addressed in the Brunch and funny, that most will pay no attention to it. $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 11:00 AM #
- @snoopyjc I can justify holding them longer as insurance in a “downtrend” to cover my loooooser longs $TZA
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 11:00 AM #
- Say you are willing to risk $1,000 on the trade. Stock is $2.35 above stop, hence your share count will be 425. $$
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- BHBGroupTrader Mar. 07 at 11:00 AM #
- @tickerville think of it as an open field vs a forest that you can hide behind a tree for cover.thats how I think before i put a trade $$
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- avcacio Mar. 07 at 10:59 AM #
- @snoopyjc as a swing trader, I’ve lost big on some longs - but… my swings into the 3x inverse’s have boosted my port up nicely $$
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- hugo48 Mar. 07 at 10:58 AM #
- @Psando Go to the weekly chart on $RIG. Next forget what the symbol is. Would you put your hard earned money in that chart right now$$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:58 AM #
- You should use a reverse calculation to determine how much you are willing to lose should $TBT fall below $43. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:57 AM #
- Take your $TBT. Technically that is extremely attractive and only breaks down below $43. There is no reason to be stopped out there. $$
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- wavegenius Mar. 07 at 10:57 AM #
- $IBM = on the 10 day chart, it may drop to as low as 81 in a downward 3
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:57 AM #
- @snoopyjc That is too complex. Again, stops should always be based on where you are wrong. If that is too far away, the trade is not good $$
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- Psando Mar. 07 at 10:56 AM #
- $$If people dont like the ETN aspect of DXO you could go with the etf $$UCO.
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- Psando Mar. 07 at 10:55 AM #
- @tickerville was $rig rise to 60 a tell for oils move up this week, and now just got over extended?
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 10:55 AM #
- @tickerville Yes, stops are a bane to my portfolio. I’m starting to use option collars instead, but the Puts are expensive. $$
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 10:55 AM #
- $$ it was NOT that it was right!!! …rather illustrated need to understand influence of major indices swings to fine tune specific trades
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:55 AM #
- If that stop strategy doesn’t make sense. We have some work to do, let me explain. $$
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:54 AM #
- Stops should always be based on technical breaks, where the trade no longer works. You must calculate this before hand. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 10:54 AM #
- @avcacio I’m still foolishly holding $SMN which is still underwater since Dec.
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:53 AM #
- @Psando $RIG has broken down. Technically not attractive yet. If these stocks follow oil, I’ll play. $$
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- snoopyjc Mar. 07 at 10:53 AM #
- @avcacio I foolishly held $SIJ from December, and it just became “above water” this past week, and that includes the Capital Gain Dist.
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- MacroMeister Mar. 07 at 10:53 AM #
- $$ my analysis from last MON prep’d initiated that weekly gap lower meant weakness & DJIA bounce to 6970 phony http://bit.ly/86auf ..
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- tickerville Mar. 07 at 10:53 AM #
- @snoopyjc said “stopped out at 9% because 8% didn’t work” I have always found that fixed stops based on % or money does not work $$
